230
FXUS64 KFWD 221004
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
504 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Our current thinking with regards to the short term portion of the
forecast has not changed with heat being the primary weather
concern. We will make some minor hourly grid adjustments to
temperature, dew point, and sky cover to match current
observations. No other changes are needed at this time.

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Saturday night/

Isolated showers that formed on the southern periphery of a ridge
aloft have dissipated with the loss of surface heating. Diurnally
driven Cu have also dissipated, leaving a mostly clear sky across
the region. After a seasonably hot and humid day with highs in
the lower and middle 90s, temperatures will cool steadily
overnight, reaching the lower and middle 70s by sunrise Saturday.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday (highs generally in
the middle 90s) with building heights and plenty of sun. However,
moisture will remain below 700 mb, allowing daytime Cu to develop
once again. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a few
sprinkles could reach the ground across a few of our Central Texas
counties Saturday afternoon, but subsidence should be too strong
for these brief showers to produce measurable rainfall.

Daytime Cu will dissipate Saturday evening and southerly winds
will become light, allowing a steady cool down. Overnight lows
will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s, but a few spots
across the urban heat island of the metroplex may not fall below
78 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The main story heading into the upcoming workweek will be the
onset of oppressive summer heat. The upper ridge axis will become
centered directly overhead by the end of this weekend, and daily
high temperatures will steadily trend warmer into the upper 90s
while triple-digit readings begin to become more common. Mixing
out of dewpoints into the 60s early in the week will hold heat
index values largely in the 100-108 degree range, but higher
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s arriving towards the midweek
period could push heat index values over 110 at times. Prolonged
heat headlines appear likely through the extended forecast
period.

The ridge will become anchored across the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, placing much of the Southern and Central Plains within
northerly flow aloft. This pattern can allow weak fronts to push
farther southward than normal by summertime standards, and
resultant convection can sometimes become a factor for North Texas
as steering flow sends convection from these boundaries southward
through the Plains. As a result, at least some low thunderstorm
chances may exist on Wednesday or Thursday. Unless next week`s
heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least some
remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely
continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

...VFR with south flow...

Patchy stratus has developed across the Texas Hill Country early this
morning but weak southerly flow and daytime mixing should keep it
well south of the TAF sites. We do expect scattered Cu to develop
shortly after sunrise along with some passing high clouds. The Cu
will dissipate around sunset but a few high clouds will remain.

The wind will stay southerly at speeds generally less than 12
knots.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  98  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  74  95  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               94  75  97  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              96  75  99  76 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            96  76  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              96  78  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             94  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  75  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              94  72  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  73  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$