897
FXUS64 KFWD 281911
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
211 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 109 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/Through Saturday/

With the upper ridge settled directly overhead, hot and dry
conditions will prevail through the remainder of today and
Saturday. The current heat headlines will be allowed to continue
through Saturday evening with an Excessive Heat Warning over the
DFW Metroplex and its collar counties and a Heat Advisory
elsewhere. Dangerously hot conditions with temperatures in the
upper 90s and low 100s and heat index values up to 112 degrees are
expected within the EHW area. Warm overnight lows in the upper 70s
to low 80s will also increase potential heat stress due to the
lack of relief from hot afternoon conditions. Take the necessary
precautions to keep yourself and your loved ones safe from heat-
related illnesses.

High-resolution guidance suggests some isolated sea-breeze
thunderstorm activity may occur over southeast Texas Saturday
afternoon potentially extending as far north as the Brazos Valley.
We have kept PoPs below 15% in our Brazos Valley counties to
account for the very isolated nature of this convection.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made with the latest long term
forecast. Hot and dry conditions will prevail across North and
Central Texas through next week, with heat indices ranging between
105 to 110. Low storm chances remain for our northeastern
counties. It is totally possible that rain chances will be pulled
out completely by Sunday as it seems increasingly likely that the
associated surface boundary will stall north of us in Oklahoma.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night Through Next Week/

The ongoing summer heat will be the main headline in the extended
period, with rain chances remaining near zero through next week.
The only exception to this will be on Sunday as showers and storms
develop near a weak front in Oklahoma. Some of this activity may
skirt areas near the Red River, but this will largely depend on
how far south the front ends up stalling. Otherwise, rain-free
weather is expected, with daily temperatures ranging from the mid
90s to near 104 degrees. Warm and muggy mornings in the mid 70s
to low 80s will continue. Fortunately, slightly lower humidity
should keep heat index values a bit lower than we`re currently
seeing. However, we`ll still meet Heat Advisory criteria across
most of the area each day, so a daily extension of the ongoing
advisory can be expected for the next week.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 109 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of this
afternoon and evening. High clouds and SCT cigs at 4-5kft can
currently be observed over North and Central Texas on satellite
imagery. South winds generally in between 10-20 kts will persist
through the TAF period for all terminals.

A surge of low-level moisture later tonight will likely bring a
period of MVFR cigs to the region Saturday morning. With the
greatest potential for MVFR conditions residing over Central
Texas, we have went with a prevailing MVFR group at KACT starting
at 10Z. MVFR cigs within the D10 airspace will likely bounce
around from SCT to MVFR, so we have included a 13Z-16Z TEMPO for
MVFR at all Metroplex sites.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  99  81  99  82 /   0   0   0   5   5
Waco                81  97  78  97  78 /   0   5   0   5   0
Paris               78  96  78  95  76 /   0   5   5  20  10
Denton              81 100  79 100  78 /   0   0   0   5   5
McKinney            81  98  79  98  78 /   0   0   0  10   5
Dallas              81  99  81  99  81 /   0   0   0   5   5
Terrell             79  96  78  96  78 /   0   5   0  10   5
Corsicana           82  97  79  98  79 /   0   5   0   5   5
Temple              81  97  77  97  77 /   0  10   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       79  98  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>094-
102>105-117>121-131>134.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ095-100-101-106-107-
115-116-122-123-129-130-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$