291
FXUS64 KFWD 201036
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
536 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Light rain remains possible mainly across southwestern portions of
the area today, although most locations will stay dry while cloud
cover progressively thins. Following a rather pleasant day
yesterday with overcast skies and highs in the 80s, temperatures
will rebound into the 90s this afternoon to begin astronomical
summer. Heat will build heading into the weekend as the mid-level
weakness associated with Tropical Storm Alberto is replaced by a
strengthening ridge.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

Gulf moisture on the far northern fringes of Tropical Storm
Alberto is resulting in pockets of light rain within the forecast
area tonight which will continue to slowly shift westward with
time through the early morning hours. No lightning has occurred
with any of this activity, and rain rates remain around 0.1" per
hour or less in Central Texas. Most of the activity depicted on
radar imagery in North Texas is not even reaching the surface with
dry air present beneath these high-based showers, and much of it
is falling as virga at this time. Given the low probability that
measurable rainfall will occur for most of the forecast area, PoPs
will be kept on the low end at 10-20% with the exception of
Central Texas where a few hundredths should accumulate in the rain
gauges during the next several hours.

While most activity will be exiting the area to the west later
this morning, some guidance does indicate the potential for
isolated redevelopment of showers in Central Texas this afternoon
in the presence of a weak low-level confluent zone. We`ll carry
very low PoPs through the daytime, but most areas will remain
dry. While broken/overcast skies delivered a rather pleasant day
yesterday with highs in the 80s, the steady thinning of cloud
cover will allow highs to return to the 90s today. Heat index
values will be near 100F near and east of I-35 this afternoon with
increased humidity being a contributing factor. The upper ridge
that has brought a heat wave to the east coast will steadily build
southwestward heading into the weekend, with hot and dry weather
prevailing for Friday as this ridge axis becomes centered
overhead.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Strong ridging aloft will provide hot and rain-free weather area-
wide this weekend. Highs in the lower and mid 90s on Saturday will
increase to the mid and upper 90s on Sunday. Meanwhile, a second
tropical disturbance will develop in the southern Gulf, but the
ridge will once again keep the system well south and send it west
across Mexico. Unfortunately, the tropical system will have a far
enough reach to increase moisture across the region, leading to
uncomfortably hot conditions starting Sunday. Conditions will be
exacerbated on Monday when the ridge axis shifts to our west,
creating northwest flow aloft. This flow will push a front south
to near the Red River, adding a few more degrees to our daytime
high due to compressional warming south of the surface boundary.
Highs in the upper 90s coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s
will push Monday afternoon heat index values into the 105 to 110
degree range for areas generally along and east of I-35 (where the
highest moisture content will reside).

Similar conditions are in store for Tuesday and may actually
expand farther west to encompass all of the CWA. There is a bright
side, however, as guidance continues to hint at the possibility of
thunderstorms developing around the east and northeast flank of
the ridge and providing some temporary relief from the heat. The
first such activity would occur on Tuesday, but would be most
likely limited to the far East Texas counties. Better chances for
convection appear likely on Wednesday as another front pushes
south, this time potentially accompanied by a line of showers and
storms. The combination of precipitation and rain-cooled air will
hopefully provide at least a brief respite from the early to mid
week heat.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

MVFR stratus is attempting to fill in on the back edge of a
westward-departing rain shield, and cigs near 2 kft will be
Tempo`d for a few hours this morning before prevailing VFR
resumes. Very light rain remains possible at any of the TAF sites
for a few more hours, but this potential is too low to include in
the TAFs. While low/mid cloud decks will erode through the
daytime, the cirrus canopy will remain in place through the entire
TAF period. Easterly winds will very gradually become more
southeasterly by this evening while remaining around 10 kts or
less.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  95  77  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                91  74  92  73  93 /  10   0   5   0   0
Paris               91  71  93  72  95 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  74  94  73  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  74  94  74  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              93  76  95  76  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  73  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           93  75  94  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              90  74  93  72  93 /  20   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       91  74  93  73  95 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$