365
FXUS64 KFWD 181717
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

An influx of Gulf moisture associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will result in periodic showers and thunderstorms
across North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. Coverage will
remain isolated to widely scattered this afternoon and largely
diurnally driven, as we`re still on the periphery of the tropical
disturbance. Any activity this afternoon should dissipate near
sunset, but an uptick in coverage is expected late tonight through
Wednesday. The best chances for showers and storms continue to be
advertised across Central Texas where isolated rainfall totals
between 1-2" are expected. There is a 10% chance rainfall totals
will exceed 3" roughly near and south of a line from Goldthwaite
to Gatesville to Hearne. Any higher-end totals will result in
minor flood impacts across these areas as soils remain saturated
following our wet spring. Some locations, especially across North
Texas, will miss out on rain entirely.

Aside from the rain chances, another warm and breezy afternoon is
expected today with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. A few spots may see heat index values top 100 degrees.
Fortunately, we`ll get a brief break from the heat on Wednesday
as a result of the increased cloud cover and precipitation, with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 423 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Lingering MVFR ceilings are slowly lifting to VFR, with the Cu
field expected to gradually scatter out through the afternoon. A
few showers and storms are expected to develop across Central
Texas this afternoon, but coverage will be too isolated to
warrant a mention in the KACT TAF at this time. Showers and storms
will increase in coverage across Central Texas late tonight,
spreading north throughout the day Wednesday. The best potential
for showers/storms at any of the terminals will likely be tomorrow
afternoon. Pinpointing a time for D10 is challenging since
coverage will be isolated to widely scattered, so we`ll forgo any
mention of VCSH for now. For KACT, showers and storms could begin
tomorrow morning, but the best potential will be outside of the
current TAF period during the afternoon.

Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will continue this afternoon,
but the strong gusts should subside near sunset. East to southeast
winds near 10-15 knots are expected tonight through the remainder
of the period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  74  87  75  90 /   0   0  20  20  10
Waco                90  74  83  74  87 /  20   5  40  40  20
Paris               89  70  85  73  90 /  10   5  10  10   5
Denton              91  73  87  72  89 /   0   0  20  20  10
McKinney            91  73  86  73  90 /   5   5  20  20   5
Dallas              92  75  87  75  91 /   0   5  20  20   5
Terrell             90  73  85  73  90 /   5   5  20  20   5
Corsicana           91  73  84  75  90 /  20   5  30  20   5
Temple              91  73  81  72  87 /  20   5  50  50  30
Mineral Wells       90  72  86  72  87 /   0   0  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$