053
FXUS64 KFWD 131754
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today Through Friday/

A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we
close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm
across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
both today and tomorrow. Dew points won`t mix out too much during
the afternoon hours, so heat index values will likely top 100
degrees for some locations. However, we are not expecting to meet
Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Patchy fog may develop
across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early
Friday morning. Otherwise, no notable weather (other than the
heat and humidity) is expected through the period.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

Tranquil weather is expected through the weekend as mid level
ridging will spread east across the Southern Plains and into the
Southeast U.S. A shortwave will track through the Plains on
Saturday, but moisture will be too limited and forcing for ascent
too far removed to result in any precipitation across our region.
We`ll see temperatures in the mid 90s both Saturday and Sunday.

By Monday, as ridging intensifies over the Southeastern U.S.,
deeper troughing will set up over the western CONUS. This will
eventually allow a plume of deep tropical moisture to spread
west across the Gulf around the periphery of the ridge and into
the Texas coastal waters by Monday afternoon. A pronounced mid
level deformation zone should be in place from the Big Bend region
through North Texas by this time, and while this feature won`t
result in any appreciable lift alone, it will be the least
subsident zone in proximity to the strong ridge farther east. With
an influx of tropical moisture and strong afternoon heating, we
should see an uptick in scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, primarily east of I-35 and across our southeastern
counties. This weakness aloft will linger through mid week while
we`ll have to watch for any tropical organization across the
southwest Gulf. Scattered afternoon showers/storms will be
possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the same areas to our
east/southeast. With the extra cloud cover, we may shave a few
degrees off our afternoon highs Monday through Wednesday, but the
added humidity will still keep heat indices in the 98-102 degree
range.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and light south to southeast winds below 10 knots will
continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are
expected through Friday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  74  95  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                94  73  96  72  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               91  68  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  72  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  71  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  73  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  70  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           92  72  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              92  73  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  71  94  70  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$