189
FXUS64 KFWD 200548
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Gulf moisture on the far northern fringes of Tropical Storm
Alberto is resulting in pockets of light rain within the forecast
area tonight which will continue to slowly shift westward with
time through the early morning hours. No lightning has occurred
with any of this activity, and rain rates remain around 0.1" per
hour or less in Central Texas. Most of the activity depicted on
radar imagery in North Texas is not even reaching the surface with
dry air present beneath these high-based showers, and much of it
is falling as virga at this time. Given the low probability that
measurable rainfall will occur for most of the forecast area, PoPs
will be kept on the low end at 10-20% with the exception of
Central Texas where a few hundredths should accumulate in the rain
gauges during the next several hours.

While most activity will be exiting the area to the west later
this morning, some guidance does indicate the potential for
isolated redevelopment of showers in Central Texas this afternoon
in the presence of a weak low-level confluent zone. We`ll carry
very low PoPs through the daytime, but most areas will remain
dry. While broken/overcast skies delivered a rather pleasant day
yesterday with highs in the 80s, the steady thinning of cloud
cover will allow highs to return to the 90s today. Heat index
values will be near 100F near and east of I-35 this afternoon with
increased humidity being a contributing factor. The upper ridge
that has brought a heat wave to the east coast will steadily build
southwestward heading into the weekend, with hot and dry weather
prevailing for Friday as this ridge axis becomes centered
overhead.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024/
/Thursday Night through Wednesday/

Mid level ridging will continue to build across the Plains by
Friday and persist through much of next week meaning the first
week of astronomical summer will get off to a very hot start. The
center of the ridge axis will be over the Mid South on Friday and
shift westward across North Texas and into West Texas by Sunday.
Temperatures will steadily climb from the mid 90s on Friday to
near 100 degrees on Sunday and Monday. In addition to the heat,
deeper boundary layer moisture is expected across Central and
North Texas Monday through Wednesday leading to heat indices
between 105-110 degrees. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
across much of the area next week. While the ridge axis will
continue a westward push through the middle of the week allowing
for modest north/northwesterly flow aloft, rain chances look to
remain at 10% or less for much of our area.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Light rain showers have overspread some of the D10 airports during
the past hour, and may continue through ~09z on an intermittent
basis before shifting to the west. Rain may persist longer at
Waco, but will likely still come to an end around daybreak. MVFR
stratus near 2 kft may briefly fill in on the back edge of this
departing precipitation, before VFR resumes by mid or late
morning. A steady thinning and clearing of VFR cigs will transpire
through the rest of the period while an east wind at 5-10 kts
prevails.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  77  95  77 /  20  10   5   5   0
Waco                73  91  74  92  74 /  30  20  10  10   0
Paris               74  91  72  93  73 /  20  10   5   5   0
Denton              75  92  74  94  74 /  20  10   5   5   0
McKinney            77  92  73  94  74 /  20  10   5   5   0
Dallas              76  93  76  95  77 /  20  10   5   5   0
Terrell             75  92  73  94  74 /  20   5   5   5   0
Corsicana           71  93  75  94  76 /  20   5   5   5   0
Temple              72  91  73  93  72 /  40  20  20  10   0
Mineral Wells       74  91  74  93  72 /  20  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$