800
FXUS64 KFWD 212258
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

After a hot afternoon with highs in the middle and upper 90s,
temperatures will slowly fall into the lower and middle 70s
tonight. Sunday will still be hot, but slightly cooler than today
as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Texas Coast in response
to a shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains.

The really good news is that a cold front is still on track to
move across the region late Sunday afternoon through Monday,
bringing cooler temperatures and increasing rain and thunderstorm
chances.

No major changes are needed to the forecast at this time (see
discussion below).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday/

Mid-level ridging will remain in control through a good chunk of
the weekend with hot and dry conditions persisting through at
least mid-afternoon Sunday for the entirety of the FWD CWA.
Temperatures will top in the mid- to upper 90s this afternoon with
heat index values inching above 100 degrees across most of the
region. A few locations peaking above 105 degree heat indices are
possible this afternoon across portions of North Texas and the DFW
Metroplex. Continue to take the proper precautions to keep you
and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses.

Another mild, humid night is expected tonight with overnight lows
in the low to mid-70s. A shortwave trough will gradually shift
over the Plains later tonight into Sunday sending a cold front
toward North Texas by late Sunday afternoon. FROPA will reach our
far northwestern zones around ~3-5PM Sunday evening with
scattered showers and storms likely along and in the vicinity of
the boundary. An axis of moderate instability along and just ahead
of the front with ~30-40 kts deep layer shear overhead will
support a few stronger storms late Sunday afternoon/early Sunday
evening across our far northwest with the potential for a
marginally severe storm or two not out of the question. Rain
chances will increase in coverage across our forecast area Sunday
night as the front continues to push south.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

A weak cold front will enter the northwest zones Sunday night,
likely accompanied by scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The front will be driven by a positive-tilt
shortwave trough, which will propagate east through the Southern
Plains Sunday night through Monday. The highest POPs across North
and Central Texas will be Sunday night into Monday morning when
the strongest ascent will occur, with precipitation tapering off
Monday afternoon as the shortwave moves east and subsidence
develops in its wake. The front should reach southeast Texas by
the time it stalls Monday evening, covering all of North and
Central Texas in a cooler airmass. Cooler is a relative term in
this case as temperatures will drop to near normal values, with
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

A lull in precipitation will occur Monday night through Tuesday
morning, followed by additional rain and storm chances Tuesday
night and Wednesday associated with an upper low. The low is
progged to drop south from Manitoba through the U.S Plains,
eventually merging over Oklahoma with a shortwave embedded in the
subtropical jet by late Tuesday. Isentropic lift will rapidly
strengthen near and north of the stationary front Tuesday
afternoon and evening, leading to another round of showers and
occasional thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Convection will be elevated in nature and likely sub severe, but
lapse rates do look steep enough to support hail in some of the
stronger storms.

The low itself will shift slightly east on Thursday, pushing most
of the precipitation into East Texas, but low rain chances may
need to be kept across the eastern-most counties where wrap-around
moisture may generate a few rain showers. Fortunately, the
position of the low may be what deflects next week`s potential
tropical system off to the east and away from Texas. It is far too
soon, however, to speculate on if, when and where the tropical
system may develop. Otherwise, temperatures should remain near
normal next week through the end of the month.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

No significant aviation weather concerns are expected through
tonight with VFR and a south to southeast wind around 10 knots
along with a few higher gusts. A 25 knot low level jet will likely
send some stratus northward across Central Texas overnight but
MVFR ceilings are unlikely at the TAF sites, including Waco.

A cold front will approach from the northwest Sunday afternoon,
but all precipitation will stay well to the west/northwest of the
TAF sites through 00Z. We will include a northerly wind shift in
the extended portion of the DFW TAF at 03Z Monday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  69  81  66 /   0   5  30  30  10
Waco                73  94  71  84  68 /   0   0  10  20  10
Paris               73  93  71  82  63 /   0   5  10  40  10
Denton              74  94  66  81  62 /   0   5  40  30  10
McKinney            74  94  69  83  63 /   0   5  30  40  10
Dallas              76  95  70  83  66 /   0   5  30  30  10
Terrell             74  94  71  84  65 /   0   0  10  30  10
Corsicana           74  95  74  87  68 /   0   0  10  20  10
Temple              71  94  71  87  68 /   0   0  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  63  80  61 /   0  20  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$