464
FXUS64 KFWD 190539
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Thursday/

Rain chances on the far outer periphery of PTC One continue to
wane within our forecast area. The greatest moisture content with
this feature has trended more westward with each passing model
run as the system drifts towards the Texas Coastal Bend. Total
rain amounts within our CWA over the next 48 hours will range from
0" in much of North Texas, to perhaps around 0.5" in our southern
Central Texas zones. No severe weather or flooding issues are
forecast. The good news is that a substantial increase in cloud
cover will offer a rare mid-June day with highs in the 80s, along
with a decent easterly breeze. This cloud cover will begin
departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound
into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is
replaced by a strengthening upper ridge.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
Update:
Rain bands associated with PTC One will continue to move from
southeast to west across the state on Wednesday night as the
remnants of the tropical depression/storm transition further
inland into Mexico. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below
remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast. The NBM has continued a downward trend in the
coverage of precipitation after sunrise on Thursday with
convection contracting closer to the main circulation. This is
likely to keep many areas rain-free after sunrise on Thursday
apart from portions of Central Texas and areas near/west of US-281
in North Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Very ragged low stratus at 3-4 kft currently exists across parts
of North Texas, but will become more widespread in coverage by the
early morning hours. The greatest potential for cigs below 3 kft
will remain west of the TAF sites, but VFR cigs are likely to
affect most of the airports later this morning. A scattering of
the low deck should occur heading into the afternoon while light
precipitation falling from a mid cloud deck pivots northwestward
into the area. Rain chances are too low to include at Metroplex
TAF sites, but will carry a window of VCSH at Waco where showers
should be more numerous through the afternoon and evening. A
modest easterly breeze of 8-12 kts with occasional higher gusts
will prevail through the period.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  88  76  92  75 /   5  20  20   5   0
Waco                73  83  74  91  73 /  10  30  20  10   5
Paris               72  87  73  91  71 /   5  10   5   0   0
Denton              74  89  73  92  72 /   5  20  20   5   0
McKinney            75  88  74  92  73 /   5  20  10   5   0
Dallas              74  88  76  93  75 /   5  20  10   5   0
Terrell             74  85  74  92  72 /  10  20  10   0   0
Corsicana           73  86  76  93  75 /  10  20  10   0   0
Temple              73  82  73  91  73 /  10  50  30  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  88  73  90  72 /   0  20  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$