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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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447 FXUS64 KFWD 291047 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the previous forecast. The Excessive Heat Warning was expanded to account for yesterday`s observed peak heat index and today`s expected values. We will likely get a small reprieve from the oppressive heat index values tomorrow with most of the area staying below 106. Although the Heat Advisory will likely have to be extended in time for a few locations, some areas across North Texas will likely be without a Heat Advisory tomorrow. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday/ As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is expected across our region. All of North and Central Texas is now under a Heat Advisory or an Excessive Heat Warning, with the hottest and most dangerous conditions expected within the Excessive Heat Warning. Temperatures this afternoon will climb into the mid 90s to around 102 with heat index values topping out closer to 112. Caution should be taken if you are planning on spending time outdoors today. Those who are most at risk will be the heat-sensitive groups as well as those who will be actively exposed to the sun for a long duration of time. Remember to stay hydrated, seek a cool place to take a break from the heat as well as wear light- colored clothing! Tonight, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70s across the region. The urban heat island effect will keep temperatures in the 80s within the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. A stalled weak front across Oklahoma will likely lead to a few showers and storms well north of our region, with a few boundaries likely pushing closer to the Red River late in the afternoon. Although convection will likely be limited by the subsident air aloft, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out mainly across far northeast TX. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be 1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly below 108 degrees. The Excessive Heat Warning is unlikely to continue into Sunday, however, the Heat Advisory may be extended for parts of our region for tomorrow afternoon. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 247 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ /Sunday Night Through Next Week/ Widespread triple digit temperatures will continue throughout the week, with the hottest temperatures expected on Tuesday. Heat index values will be between 103-110 degrees each day, but >110 degrees should be less common than we experienced this week. Heat headlines will continue throughout the week for most (if not all) areas. There are some early indications that the ridge responsible for our hot and quiet weather will weaken and shift further west late next week. As a result, rain chances will return late in the week and potentially continue into next weekend. While most of the rain would occur Friday onward, it`s worth monitoring the forecast if you have any outdoor plans for the July 4th holiday, as timing is certainly subject to change over the next several days. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Patchy MVFR is ongoing at this time across KACT and eastern parts of the D10 airspace. This will likely continue for a few more hours through around 14-15Z. This afternoon, cumulus clouds are ongoing again expected around FL060. Once the MVFR stratus dissipates, no aviation impacts are expected. Winds will remain southerly throughout the day between 13-16 knots. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 82 99 81 100 / 0 5 5 5 5 Waco 99 78 97 78 99 / 0 5 0 0 0 Paris 96 79 95 76 95 / 0 5 20 5 10 Denton 100 80 100 78 100 / 0 5 5 5 5 McKinney 98 81 98 79 99 / 0 5 5 5 5 Dallas 99 82 99 81 100 / 0 5 5 5 5 Terrell 96 79 97 78 97 / 0 5 5 5 5 Corsicana 98 79 98 79 100 / 0 5 5 5 5 Temple 99 77 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 78 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-116>123-131>135-144>148-159-161-162. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ115-129-130- 141>143-156>158-160-174-175. && $$