087
FXUS64 KFWD 140815
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
315 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/
/Through Saturday/

Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and
rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing
into the mid 90s both today and Saturday. Thanks to decent mixing
out of surface dewpoints during peak heating, maximum heat index
values are largely expected to remain at or below the 100 degree
mark the next couple of afternoons. However, southeast winds will
be rather light at just 5-10 mph, and will do little to offer any
relief from the summer heat. Otherwise, some passing cirrus
spilling southward from convective activity well to our north
along the KS/OK border will be the extent of sky cover present
through the period.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Night Onward/

Our mid level ridge will become compromised at the start of the
period by a shortwave trough in the Plains, which may be enough to
generate a few isolated storms across northwest portions of the
forecast area Saturday night or Sunday. Subsidence will remain
strong enough, however, to keep it hot and dry for the vast
majority of the region, with Sunday highs in the mid 90s being
fairly common.

Starting Monday, a weakness in the ridge will persist across the
region as the shortwave becomes replaced by the northern flank of
an inverted trough / easterly wave over the Gulf. Meanwhile,
cyclonic flow aloft will develop across the western CONUS around
the base of an upper low entering the Pacific Northwest. The
resulting lee-side surface troughing will tighten the pressure
gradient, creating a deep southerly fetch from the western Gulf
into the Plains. This will begin a period of good moisture
advection across the region, with the pattern (trough in the west,
ridge in the east, tropical wave over the western Gulf) remaining
persistent through most of next week. A slight chance of showers
and storms will be the result during the afternoon hours both
Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances being mainly confined to
areas east of I-35 where moisture should be most abundant.

An exceptionally strong surge of Gulf moisture will occur on
Wednesday as the tropical wave treks west across northeastern
Mexico and South Texas. The nose of a 2" precipitable water
airmass will enter the southeast zones Wednesday afternoon,
spreading west across Central Texas Wednesday night into Thursday.
Even north of the 2 inch max, PWATS are progged to be at or above
130% of normal for June. Scattered, diurnally-driven showers and
storms should subsequently spread west to include areas along and
west of I-35 late Wednesday and Thursday as this moisture swath
spreads west. The best rain chances will be across Central Texas
in the deeper tropical airmass, where the main threat would be
locally heavy rain, with lesser rain chances generally the farther
north you go. Due to the scattered nature of the expected
convection, will keep POPs conservative and fairly broad-brushed
for now.

Precipitation will exit to the west late Thursday as the system
crosses Mexico and heads for the Pacific. The ridge aloft will
take over once again at the end of next week, with another
tropical system possibly taking shape in the Gulf by the following
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southeast winds of 5-10
kts. FEW/SCT cirrus will spill into North Texas associated with
dissipating convection far to the north, and this will be the
extent of sky cover present at the airports for the next 30 hours.
Patchy MVFR stratus is possible each of the next two mornings in
parts of Central Texas, but will remain well south and east of
the TAF sites.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                93  71  92  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               93  69  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              95  70  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            94  71  94  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              95  73  95  76  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             93  70  93  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  72  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              93  71  93  73  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  70  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$