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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
824 FXUS65 KGGW 231930 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 130 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A few severe storms will be possible late this afternoon through the overnight hours. - High temperatures reaching into the mid 90s today near and south of the Hi-Line. This could have strong heat impacts for communities without air conditioning. - Quiet weather early next week will be followed by more active weather for the latter part of next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: CAM Models this afternoon have been pushing the afternoon and evening severe storm possibilities further and further north with each run. Although there`s some 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE over the area to work with as well as decent shear values, seems like a trigger mechanism to get things going is pretty absent until overnight when a weak cold front moves through. If any storms do manage to fire this afternoon and evening along the International Border, strong winds and large hail still remain a possibility. Any storms that develop during the overnight period when the front moves through will have gusty winds as the main severe weather threat. Zonal flow takes over Monday and Tuesday with dry condition and slightly above average temperatures being the main impact. A quick moving ridge moves through on Wednesday followed by a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will keep things unsettled with rain and thunderstorm chances possible Wednesday night into Friday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence in thunderstorms across the region is getting lower with each CAM model run progressively pushing this afternoons thunderstorms further north into Canada. Confidence is low to medium with overnight storm chances. High confidence of a couple quiet days to start the week than medium confidence in a pattern change to unsettled weather starting Wednesday night. -Bernhart && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 0830Z FLIGHT CAT: VFR DISCUSSION: A chance of thunderstorms remains during the evening along the international border, with the rest of the area seeing a chance of thunderstorms during the overnight hours between 05Z-10Z. Some of the storms along the border could produce large hail and strong winds, while gusty winds are possible with the overnight storms. Things look dry with a few passing high clouds for Monday. LLWS: Possible from 03Z to 12Z Mon. WIND: S-SE 10-20kts, becoming NW 10-20kts between 03Z at KGGW and 10Z at KSDY. -Bernhart && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow