824
FXUS65 KGGW 231930
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
130 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A few severe storms will be possible late this afternoon
  through the overnight hours.

- High temperatures reaching into the mid 90s today near and south
  of the Hi-Line. This could have strong heat impacts for
  communities without air conditioning.

- Quiet weather early next week will be followed by more active
  weather for the latter part of next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

CAM Models this afternoon have been pushing the afternoon and
evening severe storm possibilities further and further north with
each run. Although there`s some 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE over the
area to work with as well as decent shear values, seems like a
trigger mechanism to get things going is pretty absent until
overnight when a weak cold front moves through. If any storms do
manage to fire this afternoon and evening along the International
Border, strong winds and large hail still remain a possibility.
Any storms that develop during the overnight period when the front
moves through will have gusty winds as the main severe weather
threat.

Zonal flow takes over Monday and Tuesday with dry condition and
slightly above average temperatures being the main impact. A quick
moving ridge moves through on Wednesday followed by a trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest. This will keep things unsettled
with rain and thunderstorm chances possible Wednesday night into
Friday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence in thunderstorms across the region is getting lower
with each CAM model run progressively pushing this afternoons
thunderstorms further north into Canada. Confidence is low to
medium with overnight storm chances. High confidence of a couple
quiet days to start the week than medium confidence in a pattern
change to unsettled weather starting Wednesday night.

-Bernhart



&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: A chance of thunderstorms remains during the evening
along the international border, with the rest of the area seeing a
chance of thunderstorms during the overnight hours between 05Z-10Z.
Some of the storms along the border could produce large hail and
strong winds, while gusty winds are possible with the overnight
storms. Things look dry with a few passing high clouds for Monday.

LLWS: Possible from 03Z to 12Z Mon.

WIND: S-SE 10-20kts, becoming NW 10-20kts between 03Z at KGGW and
10Z at KSDY.

-Bernhart



&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow