863
FXUS65 KGGW 281944
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
144 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Breezy conditions and scattered heavy rain showers will wind
down by midnight tonight as the low pressure system departs into
North Dakota.

2) A more unsettled pattern returns late this weekend and lasts into
much of next week, with severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday
evening.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
The low pressure system currently overhead is producing scattered
heavy downpours and gusty winds to 50 mph this afternoon, and will
gradually diminish as the low exits into North Dakota tonight. A
cooler than average day Saturday will be brief, and surface winds
will switch to the southeast.

Moisture and temperature advection ahead of the next shortwave
trough will prime the atmosphere up for another severe weather
event. Although temperatures will warm into the mid 80s and low
90s south of Highway 2, capping will be featured for most of the
afternoon based on CAMs such as Nam Nest and HRW FV3. The southern
most portion of the CWA will have the best opportunity to break
this cap in the early evening, and severe winds and hail will be
possible with the strongest storms.

Active weather is expected to remain overhead each day of the
work week following the severe weather on Sunday, although
confidence remains low on timing and strength of the storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
There is high confidence of thunderstorms occurring on Sunday
afternoon, with low to medium (20 to 40 percent) confidence on
severe weather occurring at any one location.

-Stoinskers


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 2000Z

FLIGHT CAT: MVFR - IFR.

DISCUSSION: There is high (60 percent) confidence of rain and
isolated thunderstorms ending in KOLF and KGGW by 03Z, and KSDY
and KGDV through 06Z. There is high confidence of wind gusts
dropping below 30 mph after midnight tonight as well. There is
high (60 percent) confidence of MVFR conditions affecting all TAF
sites by midnight in response to the low pressure system overhead.
Low to medium (30 to 50 percent) confidence of scattered IFR
conditions occurring for KGDV and KSDY between 06Z and 15Z before
improving in the late morning Saturday.

WINDS: For KGGW, northwest 15 to 25 knots gusting to 35 knots,
becoming north at 10 to 15 mph after 03Z, becoming light and
variable after 08Z, becoming southeast at 5 to 12 mph after 18Z.
For other TAF sites, west southwest at 12 to 25 knots gusting to
35 knots, becoming north at 10 to 15 knots after 06Z, becoming
light and variable after 12Z.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow