213
FXUS63 KGID 251123
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
623 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect from 1pm to 7pm for southeastern portions
of the area as heat index values climb to around 105 degrees. Heat
index values around 100 degrees possible outside of the advisory.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) this
afternoon-evening however there is uncertainty on how widespread
this activity will be.

- More widespread precipitation chances arrive late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

- Scattered precipitation chances (15-30%) continue Friday and
through the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend with highs in the upper 70s
  and 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today...

Another warm day is expected across the area, with highs climbing
into the 90s and 100s. A passing cold front will help to keep
northern portions of the area "cooler" with heat index values
remaining in the upper 90s. Southeastern portions of the area are
expected to be the warmest, with a Heat Advisory in effect from 1 to
7pm today. Those under a Heat Advisory will see heat index values
climb to around 105 degrees this afternoon.

As the cold front progresses south this afternoon, thunderstorm
development is possible (15-25%) along the front. There continues to
be considerable uncertainty on how widespread thunderstorm
development will be this afternoon/evening. Most CAMs indicate the
potential for at least isolated thunderstorms in the forecast area
this afternoon. It is possible however, that the environment remains
capped and thunderstorm development is prevented (similar to the
scenario depicted by the 06z HRRR). SBCAPE values of 3000 J/Kg
combined with 0-6km shear of 35-40kts will allow for thunderstorms
that do develop to become strong to severe. The main severe weather
concerns will be for large hail and damaging wind gusts, though an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out. Overall, precipitation
chances remain low (15-25%) and confined to areas mainly east of
Highway 281 where models have had the most consensus on
thunderstorm development.

Wednesday and Thursday...

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Wednesday in the wake of the
cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s with
light easterly winds. Dry weather is expected through the daytime
hours on Wednesday. Thunderstorms that develop off the western High
Plains will move into the area late Wednesday night-early Thursday
morning. This will bring the next widespread chance (45-65%) for
precipitation to the area. Scattered to widespread shower/storms
will continue Thursday morning as the rain gradually shifts east.
Highs on Thursday look to be cooler due to persistent cloud
coverage, with highs in the upper 70s (northeast) to mid 80s
(southwest). Additional thunderstorms are possible (30-60%) Thursday
afternoon-overnight as thunderstorms move in off the western High
Plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday, but
the environment will likely depend on how showers/storms move
through Thursday morning.

Friday into next week...

Any lingering rain will come to an end Friday morning. Highs on
Friday will climb back into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Active weather
continues through the weekend as a series of shortwave troughs bring
chances for precipitation to the area. Saturday and Sunday look to
be cooler in the wake of a cold frontal passage, with highs in the
upper 70s and 80s. Cooler weather will be short lived as warmer
temperatures return early next week with highs in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will become southerly this morning. A cold front
will move through during the area during the afternoon hours.
Winds will become northerly behind the cold front and continue
through the end of the TAF period. Skies will clear this morning
with clear skies continuing through the evening hours. A few
high level clouds are possible towards the end of the TAF
period.

There is a low (20% or less) chance at a thunderstorm this
afternoon, mainly impacting KGRI. Have not included a mention
in this TAF due to the low confidence in thunderstorm
development and placement of any thunderstorm that does develop.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for NEZ086-087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis