Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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062 FXUS63 KGID 201717 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or thunderstorm could develop across just about any portion of the local area this morning, but chances are low and anything remotely on the strong side should be limited to areas north of Highway 92 late this afternoon and evening. - Periodic disturbances moving through the area will keep preciptiation chances (20-40%) in the forecast, mainly Friday and Saturday, and again Monday night through Wednesday night. Overall confidence is on the lower side, and many areas may actually remain dry through the period. - Hotter temperatures are expected to return to the area this weekend and early next week, with temperatures peaking in the mid 90s to near 100 both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. If realized, heat index values will likely be over 100 degrees to start next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Low clouds can be seen on satellite filling in across the local area this morning. While there are some hints of pockets of dense fog developing this morning in some model guidance, think the steady winds and low cloud cover should keep visibilities in the 3-5 mile range at worst through the morning hours. In addition to the low cloud cover, a line of showers and thunderstorms can be seen across central Kansas early this morning, although this line is forecast to dissipate before daybreak...with the main focus of any additional shower and thunderstorm development expected to be just northwest of the local area and closer what`s left of the frontal boundary that lifted north across the area overnight. That all said, cannot rule out an isolated shower of thunderstorms across the entire area this morning and across areas north of I-80 this afternoon...as there is a bit of instability to work with... however any activity locally should again be isolated and non- severe. While there will be significant cloud cover to start the day, skies should clear from south to north through the afternoon hours, with at least partial sunshine expected across the area later in the day. This, along with the warmer temps that have advected northward, should allow high temperatures to climb to near of just above seasonal norms by afternoon. By late afternoon, could see additional shower and thunderstorm development north of I-80, as an upper level disturbance tracks across western Nebraska and moves into South Dakota late this afternoon and evening. If a storm associated with this disturbance does clip our area, could see some small hail and gusty winds, especially for areas north of Highway 92. As high pressure builds across the southwest late in the weekend, expect the chance for thunderstorms to diminish Sunday and Monday as heights aloft rise, allowing temperatures to peak early next week in the mid 90s to near 100 for Monday and Tuesday afternoons. This will bear watching as it will be close to heat advisory criteria across at least parts, if not all of the local area, and continued to advertise the heat potential in the HWO this morning. Additionally, small chances for storms could return as early as late Monday evening as the first of several disturbances rounds the top of the ridge and moves into the plains. At this time, all of the precip chances in the forecast are on the lower confidence side, and 7 day QPF from the WPC is on the order of 0.01-0.25" through the period, so many areas may eventually remain dry for much, if not all, of the next 7 days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: MVFR stratus gradually diminish/lift here at midday, a trend that is expected to continue, allowing for VFR conditions to return early-mid afternoon. Kept mention of VFR through the rest of the period, and with better chances for preciptiation lifting north, should also be a dry TAF period. Winds through the period remain southerly, gusts near 25 MPH expected this afternoon and again mid-late morning on Friday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...ADP