Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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105 FXUS63 KGID 220557 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... - Latest forecast models continue to come in with even lower rainfall amounts tonight into Sunday across our area as main appreciable precipitation belt has now shifted southeast of even our north central Kansas counties. Tri-Cities mean total QPF now only 0.10 - 0.25". - Best bet at possibly picking up 0.50" or better rainfall through Sunday is now across our southern tier of counties (Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell). Can`t rule out several half inch rainfall reports further north into southern Nebraska, but current odds are less than 50/50. - Any precipitation that we do see should be on its way out of the area by Sunday evening. Most areas are then expecting dry conditions Monday through Saturday. - Temperature-wise: lovers of early-fall weather (highs mainly 70s/lows mainly 40s-50s) should really enjoy next week! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Tonight through Sunday... This storm system is turning into a real disappointment for many of us that need rain. What once was a rather impressive upper low that entered California and tracked across the desert southwest is clearly now projected to weaken as it makes its turn towards the northeast and our central plains region that we call home. Most forecast models now open the upper wave up as it loses strength as well as track the remains of this system further south with each new forecast model run. Consequently, the storm system that 3-4 days ago most models and ensemble members were hailing as an appreciable rain maker for the Tri- Cities is now down to an ensemble average of 0.10 - 0.25". It`s been a gradual reduction in the strength of this system for the past few days and I know it will disappoint many. Our far southern zones across north central Kansas could still salvage over 0.50", but the higher amounts may be somewhat scattered. The stronger potentially severe thunderstorms this evening should primarily remain east and southeast of our forecast area where the SPC marginal risk remains in place. Most of any precipitation on Sunday will be general rain showers, but can not rule out a few isolated claps of thunder, nothing severe expected. The bigger story may be the much cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Raised the highs a bit for Sunday following the NBM due to expectation of less overall rainfall. Next Week... Our weekend upper wave basically washes out as it tracks east towards the Mississippi Valley. A second short wave trough will slide southeast out of Canada and through the northern plains. Forecast models have been struggling on what to do with this system and seem to now be leaning towards cutting it off as an upper low to our south or southeast. This system doesn`t really bring much moisture with it hence our mainly dry forecast next week as it slips on by. At this time the forecast is for some moisture to start working back north next week and getting wrapped into this next system as it meanders off to our south southeast, but favoring southeastern Kansas and Missouri. Therefore, our forecast remains mainly dry and mild (70s) next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - Ceiling/visibility/precipitation: High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout, with the only possible "catch" being the possibility of brief MVFR visibility IF a steadier rain shower happens to pass through. Speaking of which, the area will be prone to at least scattered (mainly light) showers through Sunday afternoon, so have opted to "blanket" this time frame with a vicinity shower (VCSH) mention (the probability of thunder is far too low to include). As for ceiling, the majority of the period will likely feature a mid-level VFR ceiling mainly in the 7-10K ft. range, with some scattering/clearing possible late in the period Sunday evening. - Winds: The majority of the period will feature a fairly consistent northerly direction, before a variable direction/light speed regime sets in Sunday evening. The strongest speeds will focus between now and 21Z, with sustained 10-15KT/gusts 15-20KT common. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Pfannkuch