Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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474 FXUS63 KGID 241800 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area today with heat index values around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday for southeastern portions of the area. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) this evening across the area. Additional thunderstorm chances (15-30%) on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the area. - Scattered thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night (30-50%) through the weekend (15-30%) with highs in the 80s and 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today... Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as highs climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat index values will top out around 105 degrees for most locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1pm to 8pm today. A shortwave trough will help with an associated surface front will move into the area during the late afternoon-evening hours today bringing with it chances for thunderstorms (15-30%). While CAMs disagree on how widespread thunderstorms will be, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across the area this evening. Instability will be sufficient for severe thunderstorm development (SBCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/Kg), however weak shear (20-25kts) will help to prevent storms from becoming more organized. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, however marginally severe hail is possible in the strongest storms. Tuesday... Tuesday will be another warm day across the area. A cold front moving through the area will lead to "cooler" temperatures. Highs will be in the 90s across south central Nebraska, and around 100 degrees in north central Kansas where the cold front is slower to reach. Heat index values will be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the area, with southeastern portions of the area seeing heat index values over 100 degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for southeastern portions of the area where heat index values approaching 105 degrees are most likely. Thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) across southeastern portions of the area during the late afternoon-early overnight hours as the cold front moves through. Similar to today`s severe weather concerns, weak shear will help to prevent more significant/organized severe weather concerns. Wednesday and Thursday... Wednesday will be cooler, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dry weather is expected during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Thunderstorms developing off the western High Plains will move into the area Wednesday night, bring more widespread chances (30-50%) for precipitation to the area. Thunderstorm chances continue through the day on Thursday( 25-55%), with highs in the 80s to low 90s once again. Friday Onwards... An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional chances (25-50%) for rain to the area on Friday that continue through the weekend (15-30%). Thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon-overnight hours. Highs on Friday will climb into the 90s ahead of a cold frontal passage. Temperatures this weekend look to be cooler behind this cold frontal passage, with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with generally southwesterly winds to start the period, eventually becoming northeasterly during the late morning hours Tuesday behind a weak cold front. Expect a weak disturbance to the west this afternoon to bring the possibility for a few sprinkles or light showers, although probs are low and did not include a mention in the TAFS. Some TSRAs are expected to develop near the cold front late this afternoon and evening, but again, probs were low enough to not include as VCTS or TSRAs in the TAFs. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ086-087. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007- 017>019. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Rossi