Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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683 FXUS63 KGID 111100 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 600 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There will be low end chances (20%) for thunderstorms Wednesday evening, mainly northeast of the tri-cities. There will also be a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas Thursday evening and overnight (mainly along and south of Interstate 80). - The heat will crank up Wednesday and Thursday. More widespread Heat Index values of mid 90s-near 100 possible on Wednesday, with a smaller area of 100-105 degree values possible on Thursday (mainly along/south of the NE/KS state line). - Better chances for thunderstorms return late in the week and into the weekend, with the best chances (40-60 percent) Friday evening through late Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Aloft at 500 hPa, a trough is moving east as it departs the central Plains today while an upper ridge is over the northwestern CONUS. Further south, a ridge over Mexico is building north into the desert Southwest and an upper low is sitting off of the southern California coast. At the surface, a weakening front is departing the area with generally high pressure sitting over the Colorado Rockies. Today... Conditions will be mostly dry as an upper ridge approaches from the west. An embedded shortwave over a very localized surface low will bring a slight chance (20%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm west of Highway 281 this afternoon. Any storms that develop are not expected to be severe today. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be generally out of the west at 10 mph this morning, then light and out of the east this afternoon. Wednesday... These will be the first hot days of the year. As upper level high pressure continues to build into the desert Southwest and expand toward the Plains, temperatures will climb both days. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values from the mid-90s to around 100. The forecast Wednesday is mainly dry, but a disturbance passing by the area will bring a low end chance (20%) for thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. There will be pretty good capping over the area so not much is expected to develop, but any storms that develop north and east of the tri-cities may become marginally severe with large hail and strong winds. These would be isolated though, the better support for severe weather is well off to our northeast. Additionally, with a tightening surface pressure gradient will come stronger winds...SSE winds will increase through the day to around 20 mph sustained with gusts to around 30 mph, with the strongest gusts occurring during the afternoon. Thursday... The upper high to the southwest will continue to expand, but a surface front will move across the area. This will allow hotter temperatures across southern portions of the forecast area but mitigate those hot temperatures somewhat north. Highs Thursday will range from the mid-80s north to nearly 100 degrees across far south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s to low 100s in north central Kansas and from the mid-80s to upper 90s across south central Nebraska (the highest values along the NE/KS state line and areas south). There will be a chance of thunderstorms (20-30%) Thursday evening and overnight, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. Some of these may be marginally severe with large hail and strong winds. Friday-Monday... Periods of thunderstorms are expected during this timeframe, starting with a shortwave disturbance Friday evening/overnight, then a front over the weekend. Models are in strong agreement over the timing of the shortwave disturbance and there is at least a 40-60% chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday morning. We are probably not looking at widespread severe storms Friday and are currently thinking that if any of these do become severe, it would be Friday evening before we lose too much surface heating. Precipitation chances are slightly lower Saturday into Sunday (30-50%), mainly due to the lower confidence on the timing of the front through the area. There are indications of another front moving through early next week, but model consensus is so low that that is about all we can say for now. Temperatures will be in the 80s and low 90s Friday and Saturday, but ramp up again toward the end of the forecast period. Temperatures to end the weekend and start the next week may well be in the 90s across the entire forecast area again by this point. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A cold front will move through the TAF sites around mid-day which will bring the winds from SW to NW and winds will go SSE this evening as the front continues to move east. VFR is expected through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Beda