Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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654 FXUS63 KGID 100459 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1159 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant conditions this afternoon continue on into this evening and tonight. Monday remains dry, with the chance (20-40 percent) for showers/storms to work their way in from the west Monday evening on into Tuesday. The overall best chances look to be west of Highway 281. These storms are not expected to be severe. - Additional small chances (20-30 percent) for storms return during the evening/overnight hours on both Wednesday and Thursday, with more widespread better chances Friday evening on into the weekend (40-70 percent). - Wednesday and Thursday currently looking to be the first days of the year with widespread temps/Heat Index values in the 90s. Southern portions of the forecast area could have Heat Index near 100 degrees both days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Currently through tonight... Been a very nice start to the weekend across the forecast area, with little to no cloud cover. Looking aloft, upper air and satellite data showing northwesterly flow in place across the Plains, set up between ridging extending northward through the Rockies and a large area of low pressure over the extreme northeastern CONUS. Helping drive the comfortable conditions this afternoon is an area of surface high pressure settled over the Nrn/Central Plains, keeping winds around 10 MPH or less and dewpoints in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Mid-afternoon temps are fairly close to normal for this time of year, sitting in the mid 70s to low 80s. Quiet conditions continue on into this evening/overnight, and though a few upper level clouds may stream in from the northwest, overall clear skies are expected. Surface high pressure keeps winds light/variable overnight, but with the lower dewpoints, not expecting fog to be an issue. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the low-mid 50s. Monday and Tuesday... Expecting a dry day once again on Monday, lingering into at least the early evening hours. Models showing weakening upper level ridging getting pushed east with time by a shortwave trough making its way through the Rockies and onto the High Plains during the day. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon along an accompanying surface frontal boundary, with models in good agreement showing it still being west of the forecast area at 00Z (perhaps not by much though). Models in general have pretty good agreement showing this activity with a diminishing trend the further east it goes during the evening/overnight hours...driven by the loss of daytime heating/better lapse rates, and the fact the better upper level lift and aid from an increasing low-level jet are focused off to the north. Instability/shear are on the weaker side, so severe weather is not currently expected. Models vary some with the coverage of activity the further east you go...so outside of the 30- 40 percent chances of storms along the NW fringe of the forecast where where things move in earlier in the evening, hard to go above 20 percent chances through central portions...and have less than 20 percent across the southeastern third or so of the area. As we get into Tuesday...the main question continues to be with how much activity lingers and how far east it gets. The better upper level trough axis and lift remains north of the area into central Canada...and the accompanying surface front, losing its upper push, becomes more diffuse and is hard to pick out by late afternoon. Can`t rule out some isolated/scattered showers and storms near this frontal boundary during the day, but those chances will also wane with time during the afternoon, expected to end by early evening. Similar to Monday night, with overall lift struggling and shear on the lower side, the threat for severe weather is low. Outside of precipitation chances, winds on Monday are expected to switch to the south, as the area is set up between the departing surface high to the east and approaching low pressure to our west. Areas west of Highway 281 could be on the breezy side, with speeds closer to 15-20 MPH, further east closer to 10-15 MPH. Confidence in winds on Tuesday are lower, due to uncertainties with that weakening surface front sinking into the area. No notable changes in forecast highs...with generally mid-80s expected both days. Wednesday and on... As far as preciptiation chances go, the forecast still dry for Tuesday night on into the day on Wednesday, with some low storm chances (20 percent) returning Wed. evening/night. Not a lot of confidence in those chances, even though they only clip far northeastern portions of the forecast area. Models keeping the upper level pattern west-northwesterly, with an embedded shortwave disturbance currently looking to mainly pass just to our north. So again the better lift is looking to focus north, and models also show warmer temps in the mid-levels (capping) starting to work their way back north. Have a dry daytime on Thursday, with another shortwave disturbance bringing storm chances Thursday evening/night. Similar to the previous ones, models in general keep the brunt of the lift with these disturbances passing just off to our north...and though the accompanying surface front is a little stronger of a focus, models still have those warmer mid-level temps/capping potentially limiting the coverage of any activity in our area. There are some details to iron out in models there...just looking at deterministic models, the ECMWF is pretty dry in this period, the GFS is more aggressive with developing activity along that surface front. Hard to argue with the NBM/forecast keeping precipitation chances low (20 percent) at this point. Should storms develop, model suggesting a better environment as far as instability/shear go, so the potential strong-severe storms may become more of a concern as we get closer. A stronger upper level disturbance, this time working in from the west-southwest instead of the northwest, will bring increased precipitation chances to the area late in the forecast period. At this time, the overall best chances (50-70 percent) are focused on Friday evening/night...with 30-50 percent chances lingering into Saturday/Sat night. Overall confidence isn`t high with lingering differences between models with how things evolve. Looking at temperatures for this mid-late week time frame, overall no significant changes were made. At this time, Wednesday and Thursday are the overall hottest days of the period, with plenty of 90s to go around. Heat index values on Wednesday climb into the mid- upper 90s for much of the forecast area, with upper 90s-near 100 possible on Thursday mainly across portions of north central KS...both the hottest values of the year so far. Friday-Sunday forecast to have mid 80s north to low-mid 90s south, but any changes in any of those upper level disturbances/precipitation chances will play a role in those. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 VRB winds overnight and winds become more southerly mid-morning with gusts into the upper teens until this evening. VFR expected through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...Beda