123
FXUS63 KGID 172010
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
310 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms may be possible this evening but with
  strong capping in place, thunderstorm chances are uncertain.
  Instability and shear are there for storms to become severe IF
  they develop. If they do, the most likely areas would be
  across south central Nebraska west of a Beaver City-Kearney-
  Greeley line.

- Strong winds will continue through the overnight hours tonight
  with wind speeds sustained at 25-35 mph and gusts to around 45
  mph.

- A cold front will move in Tuesday and stall over the area
  through Wednesday. Wherever the front stalls can expect
  rainfall amounts of over 2" (Tuesday through Wednesday). Wednesday
  is expected to be much cooler with highs only in the 60s and
  70s.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

This evening/tonight...
As a surface low moves into western and central Nebraska this
afternoon/evening, strong winds ahead of it will impact the
forecast area. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts to 45 mph
(perhaps a few even stronger) are expected across south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas up to around sunrise Tuesday
when winds start to diminish (gusts to 30-35 mph will still be
possible though). There is a chance of severe thunderstorms this
evening but with warm air aloft again in place, this continues
to be uncertain. IF storms develop, there is enough instability
and moisture for thunderstorms to quickly be severe with hail
to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph or more.
Shear is limited but should be enough for severe storms, again
though, if storms develop at all. If they do, the most likely
area for severe weather will be along and west of a line from
Beaver City to Kearney to Greeley, Nebraska. Either way, most of
the forecast area is expected to remain dry.

Tuesday and Wednesday...
As the surface low shifts northeast, a cold front will sink into
the area Tuesday before shifting southeast into central KS and
southeast NE and stalling there through Wednesday. High
temperatures are a little up in the air Tuesday, especially
across northern portions of the area as temperatures will be
dependent on how quickly the front moves across that area.
Still, highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Surface heating ahead
of the front should enhance instability enough for storms to
fire off just ahead of and along the frontal boundary Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may also be severe
with large hail and strong winds.

Wednesday, the front is expected to stall around the
southeastern portion of the forecast area. This will allow for
rain and storms to sit over the same area for a period of time.
With high precipitable water values, model guidance is calling
for somewhere in the 2"-5" rainfall amounts Tuesday through
Wednesday wherever this front stalls...while that area can
handle a good amount of rain, flash flooding/area flooding may
still be possible. Wednesday is expected to be the coolest day
of the forecast period with highs only in the 60s and 70s.

Wednesday night through Thursday...
The front will shift back to the north Wednesday night-Thursday,
bringing heavier rainfall to northern portions of the forecast
area. This is expected to be less rainfall than areas further
south get, however, as the front is continued to progress north
of the area by Thursday evening.

Friday through the weekend...
Ridging aloft will allow temperatures to warm back into the 80s
across the area Friday, and a little warmer with highs in the
80s to low 90s over the weekend. Friday "should" be mostly dry,
but with the cold front still lingering across South Dakota and
northern Nebraska, our northern counties may see a few showers
and thunderstorms. Saturday, another front will move through,
bringing more rain and thunderstorms chances over the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

For the most part, expect VFR conditions through the overnight
hours tonight, with model guidance showing at least a 50% chance
of MVFR CIGS returning around 18/14Z at both TAF sites. There is
a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms at both TAF sites this
evening, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs for
now.

Clouds: Expect CIGS around 4k ft AGL to start the TAF period,
with a second layer around around 20k ft AGL later this
afternoon and evening. CIGS will become MVFR around 14Z Tuesday
morning.

Winds: Southerly winds will prevail through most of the TAF
period with gusts of 30-40 kts expected. Winds will become
southwesterly, gusting to around 30 kts, toward the end of the
period.

LLWS: A strong low level jet will move over the area, bringing
potentially significant LLWS to both TAF sites, even with the
gusty surface winds. Southerly winds will be as strong as 60 kts
or greater as low as 1500 or 2000 ft aloft. LLWS is expected to
be a factor this evening through around sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...Hickford