Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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338 FXUS63 KGID 192130 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE Issued by National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 430 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly sunny and warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s through Friday. - Widespread rain/t-storms this weekend, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts have been lowered some from previous forecast, but still appreciable, model QPF average now 0.75 northwest to 1.75 southeast. - Mainly dry next week or just a few slight (20%) chances for rain. The big story next week will be the cooler fall like temperatures (Highs 65-75, lows 40s). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Tonight through Friday... Winds will become nearly calm tonight as a surface high rests over our forecast area. Clear skies initially this evening will give way to increasing high clouds by late tonight into Friday ahead of the strong upper level low swinging through the desert southwest. Friday will remain warm (mid to upper 80s) with return southerly flow as the surface high slides east and we see pressure falls across the high plains ahead of the next upper trough. Currently believe that any precipitation chance should hold off until after midnight Friday night and then favor our southeastern zones. Weekend Rain Still On Track But Amounts Have Come Down Some... The strong upper low is projected to track northeast into Colorado on Saturday and we expect increasing showers and thunderstorms out ahead of this system especially by late afternoon into the evening hours. However, forecast models are backing off of some of the higher 2 plus inch rainfall amounts from a few days ago. The 9/19 12Z ECMWF ensemble average precipitation amount came in lower for the second day in a row now indicating on average 0.75 inches across our northwestern zones to 1.75 inches across our southeastern zones. We will probably have some locations that get less than a half inch out of this system. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs both came in with lower precipitation amounts than yesterday and last night. At this point it seems like most areas from the Tri- Cities and locations to the south and east are still in good shape to pick up weekend total rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches with some locally higher amounts over 2 inches still possible. Locations northwest of the Tri-- Cities now seem like they will be a bit lower. Am not expecting severe weather this time as instability will be lacking. Timing of the weekend rainfall favors the Saturday late afternoon and evening hours through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday should still be a pretty warm day for most locations ranging from the mid 70s northwest of the Tri-Cities to the 80s from Hastings and Grand Island east and south. However, it will be a cool rain on Sunday with our expected highs now being lowered into the mid 50s in the Tri-Cities to maybe around 60 over north central Kansas. Monday through Thursday... The upper low will pass off to our east allowing for subsidence and drier conditions. We will also be fore fall like with highs generally in the 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 425 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Clear to mostly clear skies throughout the TAF valid period. We could see a few high clouds working into the region Friday morning. Northwest winds could be a bit breezy early this afternoon, but generally under 20 kts. The wind will become light and variable around sunset and then become a light southeasterly wind after sunrise Friday morning. Very quiet aviation weather period expected. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Wesely