Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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316 FXUS63 KGID 250535 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory for heat index values as high as 110 degrees remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. A separate Heat Advisory for portions of north central Kansas as well as Thayer and Nuckolls counties in south central Nebraska is in effect from 1 PM to 7 PM Tuesday. - A (20-30%) chance for storms late this afternoon and evening, with a few marginally severe storms possible (damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern). - A cold front will bring additional chances (20-50%) for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Severe weather will be possible along this front, with large hail, severe winds and even an isolated tornado all possible. - Cooler temperatures fluctuating closer to climatology (85-95 degrees) expected for the remainder of the forecast period, with potentially below normal temperatures (upper 70s/low 80s) over next weekend. Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through next Monday, with the best chance for more widespread and beneficial rainfall expected Wednesday night through Thursday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The hottest day of the year, thus far, is being observed across the local area. Heat index values have touched 110 degrees in spots, and heat index values are expected to remain elevated into the early evening hours - with the heat advisory in effect until 8 PM this evening. To the west, a weak upper disturbance is sparking some shower and thunderstorm activity, which should eventually reach at least western portions of the area this evening. Went ahead and fine tuned pops for this evening to increase them a bit west of 281, with lesser chances further east as the evening rolls on. While there is lots of instability to work with thanks to heating across the area this afternoon, the high based nature of these storms and lack of mid-level shear will likely limit storm organization, and severe wind gusts will be the primary concern through the mid-evening hours, although with the large amount of instability, a brief period of marginally severe hail could be possible with the strongest storms. For Tuesday, the focus will shift towards a cold front that should be crossing the local area during the mid-afternoon hours. While the current runs of the CAMs are not producing a continuous line of storms along this front, some of the past runs have indicated this front should act as a trigger for storm development by mid-late afternoon, and if storms do get going, with better shear and good instability, just about any form of severe weather will be possible - especially across our northeast where probs are higher and a slight risk for severe weather is in place for tomorrow afternoon/evening. That said, confidence is not overly high, as models have not been consistent in the development and coverage of storms for tomorrow afternoon. What the cold front will mark is the line between areas that will have one more unusually hot day and likely reach heat advisory criteria. With little change in the location of this line from the previous forecast, the areal coverage of the heat advisory for Tuesday was left unchanged. Thereafter...cooler weather should infiltrate the entire area on Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures finally falling closer to seasonal norms...with a stronger upper level disturbance flattening the upper level ridge as it crosses the intermountain west...bringing a better chance for precipitation to the area late Wednesday night through Thursday night. At this time, the marginal risk for severe weather only clips a very small portion of our western counties, but would not be surprised if this area gets expanded further east as time gets closer. Additional, potentially strong to severe, storms will be possible through the day Thursday, which at this time looks to be the best shot for more widespread beneficial rainfall according to ensembles. Additionally, a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall exists across the area Thursday. Thereafter...the upper level flow becomes more zonal and progressive, with additional periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week, with a more noticeable cold front next weekend dropping temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday into the upper 70s and lower 80s, before returning closer to climo (mid to upper 80s) to start next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will dissipate around sunrise. Light and variable winds continue overnight and through the morning hours on Tuesday, but will be mainly southerly. A cold front will move through the area during the afternoon hours with winds becoming northerly behind the front. SCT to FEW high level clouds will persist through the TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for NEZ086-087. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Davis