Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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101 FXUS63 KGID 241123 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for the entire area today with heat index values around 105 degrees. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday for southeastern portions of the area. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) this evening across the area. Additional thunderstorm chances (15-30%) on Tuesday as a cold front moves through the area. - Scattered thunderstorm chances continue Wednesday night (30-50%) through the weekend (15-30%) with highs in the 80s and 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Today... Today will likely be the warmest day of the week as highs climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat index values will top out around 105 degrees for most locations. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1pm to 8pm today. A shortwave trough will help with an associated surface front will move into the area during the late afternoon-evening hours today bringing with it chances for thunderstorms (15-30%). While CAMs disagree on how widespread thunderstorms will be, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across the area this evening. Instability will be sufficient for severe thunderstorm development (SBCAPE values of 1500-3000 J/Kg), however weak shear (20-25kts) will help to prevent storms from becoming more organized. Storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, however marginally severe hail is possible in the strongest storms. Tuesday... Tuesday will be another warm day across the area. A cold front moving through the area will lead to "cooler" temperatures. Highs will be in the 90s across south central Nebraska, and around 100 degrees in north central Kansas where the cold front is slower to reach. Heat index values will be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the area, with southeastern portions of the area seeing heat index values over 100 degrees. A heat advisory has been issued for southeastern portions of the area where heat index values approaching 105 degrees are most likely. Thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) across southeastern portions of the area during the late afternoon-early overnight hours as the cold front moves through. Similar to today`s severe weather concerns, weak shear will help to prevent more significant/organized severe weather concerns. Wednesday and Thursday... Wednesday will be cooler, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Dry weather is expected during the daytime hours on Wednesday. Thunderstorms developing off the western High Plains will move into the area Wednesday night, bring more widespread chances (30-50%) for precipitation to the area. Thunderstorm chances continue through the day on Thursday( 25-55%), with highs in the 80s to low 90s once again. Friday Onwards... An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional chances (25-50%) for rain to the area on Friday that continue through the weekend (15-30%). Thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon-overnight hours. Highs on Friday will climb into the 90s ahead of a cold frontal passage. Temperatures this weekend look to be cooler behind this cold frontal passage, with highs in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR Conditions expected through TAF period. LLWS will come to an end quickly after sunrise. Southerly winds will increase this morning with sustained winds of 10-15kts and gusts of 20-25kts by the afternoon. Winds will decrease around sunset and remain light and southerly overnight. A few showers/storms are possible this evening at both KEAR and KGRI, however confidence is low (25% or less) in timing and location (and if storms develop), so have kept it out of the TAF for now. Clear skies expected through the daytime hours. SCT high level clouds are expected to move into the area this evening and persist overnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ086-087. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-017>019. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis