Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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199 FXUS63 KGID 221154 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 654 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Primary forecast concern will center around ongoing flooding today as water from overnight rainfall makes its way downstream. - There will be chances for mainly evening and overnight thunderstorms from Sunday evening through the work week with increasing chances during the late week period. - Heat returns early next week. High temperatures around 100 degrees are expected on Monday, and heat index values may exceed 105 degrees in some spots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Today (Ongoing Flooding Concerns)... It was a busy overnight period thanks to mainly non-severe training thunderstorms that produced heavy rainfall of 2-5 inches from Dawson County east northeastward through especially Sherman, Howard, Merrick, Nance, and Polk Counties. The runoff from this rainfall will gradually work its way through the smaller creeks and streams today into our larger rivers (Mainly the Loup) that will better be able to handle the significant volume of water. Am planning to mainly transition the Flash Flood Warnings within the Loup Basin to Flood Warnings this morning and run these warnings through much of today. With only a few river gauges it will be difficult to get a good handle on how many creeks and rivers are still flooding until we start getting some daylight. We also have one isolated thunderstorm working east across Custer County this morning, which the HRRR indicates will die off before or shortly after entering our forecast area in Sherman County. After this last isolated storm dies off, likely before dawn, then most models are dry for our forecast area over the remainder of the day. It will be just a little cooler than yesterday behind the cold front with northwesterly winds helping to keep at least our Nebraska zones down in the 80s for highs this afternoon. Sunday (Warming Back Up Then Slight Chance For Evening Thunderstorms)... The winds become southerly again and warmer 90 degree heat will return. The 06Z NAM, NAM NEST, and HRRR all develop thunderstorms across our western zones by late Sunday afternoon/evening, but these thunderstorms will be more driven by diurnal heating and will have a difficult time making it very far east into our CWA, but still could possibly reach the Tri- Cities. Monday (Hottest Day of the Week)... Breezy southerly winds will lead to a hot afternoon with highs from 97 to 103 across the forecast area and heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. The intense diurnal heating might be enough to also kick off a few isolated evening thunderstorms that should quickly die off by late evening after we lose the diurnal heating. Tuesday through Friday (Slightly Cooler with Increasing T-Storm Chances)... It will still be hot as we head through the rest of the work week although not as bad as Monday. Weak vort maxes will rotate through bringing mainly chances for evening/overnight thunderstorms with a bigger upper trough coming through late week (Thursday Night/Friday) bringing what could be our best chance for thunderstorms although confidence is pretty low this far out. The upper ridge should remain compressed well to our south allowing for the continued off and on chances for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: We are mostly clear at the 12Z TAF issuance time, but expect low clouds to move back in with the cold front later this morning. We might see a brief period 1-2 hours of MVFR ceilings, but VFR is probably more likely and thus will keep VFR ceilings in the TAF for now. Skies will eventually clear out again by early afternoon. The wind will switch from the southerly at TAF issuance time, to northwesterly by later this morning behind the frontal boundary. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely