Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
693 FXUS63 KGID 182004 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 304 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this evening. Initial storms may be capable of producing hail to the size of two inches, but the greater threat will be wind gusts up to 70 mph. An isolated tornado/landspout cannot be ruled out as well. The main timeframe for possible severe weather will be between 3PM and 10PM today. - After the severe threat diminishes late this evening, more widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could result in localized flooding. - Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. Temperatures will return to normal (mid-80s) and above normal (90s) by the end of the week and through the weekend. Additionally...off and on low end thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least part of the forecast area each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 This afternoon and evening... The main story with this forecast involves the showers and thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of a cold front moving east through the forecast area. Some of these storms are expected to be strong to severe. Initially late this afternoon hail to the size of two inches may be possible in the strongest storms, but more likely hail sizes would be closer to the size of quarters or half dollars. The more widespread threat, especially as these storms evolve into a more linear system, will be damaging winds up to 70 mph. An isolated brief tornado/landspout or two may be possible as well, but chances are low. The main timeframe of severe weather will be 3PM to 10PM. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas of the forecast area roughly along and east of a line from Belgrade to Shelton to Stamford in south central Nebraska and across all of our north central Kansas counties, until 8PM this evening. This includes the towns of Grand Island and Hastings, but does not quite extend to the town of Kearney. Tonight and Wednesday... As the chance for severe weather diminishes late this evening, an upper level disturbance will swing across the area tonight and Wednesday. As this moves over the frontal boundary, this will enhance the chances for more widespread rain and thunderstorms across the area...and potentially rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches mainly approximately from the tri-cities and areas south and east of that in south central Nebraska, and across the entirety of north central Kansas. Locally heavier rainfall may be possible south and east and this could result in localized flooding. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain cool with highs in the 60s across the area. Thursday and Friday... Another front is expected to move across the area Thursday, then somewhat stall north of the area Friday. This will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to much of the area Thursday, and to northern portions of the forecast area Friday evening. Weak upper level ridging will allow temperatures to warm back to normal to above normal temperatures, with highs in the 80s (normal) Thursday and in the 80s and low 90s Friday. This weekend... Generally, an upper level trough will move across the area Saturday followed by an approaching ridge Sunday. Periodic low chances of showers and thunderstorms are forecast each day, but currently it looks like most of the area should remain dry most of the time. High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s across the area. Low end chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A cold front moving through the area today and Wednesday will bring mainly MVFR CIGS (IFR CIGS possible later in the period) and periods of SHRA and TSRA to the TAF sites throughout the TAF period. -TSRA is expected to develop near the TAF sites this afternoon around 18/19Z or so...included a TEMPO group for -TSRA to try to narrow down expected impacts at the terminals. Latest models have SHRA/TSRA much of the time over southern and eastern portions of the forecast area (including KGRI) with potentially another round moving into KEAR late this evening overnight (which is why VCTS is included for KGRI through the majority of the period but there is a period where we left VCTS off in relation to KEAR). TSRA activity should decrease around sunrise across the area but showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist through 19/18Z. Around 19/12Z CIGS are expected to deteriorate further into IFR conditions. Winds: Winds will become northwesterly as the cold front passes through (around 18Z-19Z today at KGRI). There will be isolated gusts of 20-25 kts through the afternoon, becoming 10-15 kts sustained through the evening. Tonight into Wednesday morning, winds will become northeasterly, also at 10-15 kts. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford