Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
607 FXUS63 KGID 180958 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 458 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong southerly winds...with occasional gusts to 45 MPH... will gradually diminish across the area this morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. - Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of this cold front by mid-afternoon, with quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts being the primary concerns. - After the severe threat diminishes this evening, more widespread non-severe showers and thunderstorms are expected to fill in across the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2 inches...with locally higher amounts...possible. This could result in some localized flooding. - Much cooler temperatures (60s & 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday, with temperatures returning to normal (mid-80s) and eventually above normal (90s) by the end of the week and through next weekend. In addition...off and on small thunderstorm chances will be possible across at least parts of the local area each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024res A cold front can be seen on satellite rapidly moving across western Nebraska this morning. As this front reaches the local area, strong southerly winds across the region early this morning should rapidly diminish. This front is then forecast to stall...roughly near the Tri-cities corridor, eventually becoming the focus for shower and thunderstorm development by midday. While instability is significantly lower than the previous few days, cooler air aloft should allow for the development of thunderstorms along the front...some of which could become strong to marginally severe. Given the more modest instability (500-2000J/KG) and adequate shear, think the biggest threat will be hail to size of quarters along with some 60 mph wind gusts...with this threat focused during the the late afternoon through evening hours along a fairly narrow corridor near and on the warm side of the cold front. As the severe threat diminishes during the late evening hours, models bring an upper level disturbance out of the southwest over the frontal boundary...which should bring a more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms to the local area...and potentially some widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches...with locally higher totals...when all is said and done by Wednesday morning. This could result in some localized flooding...especially across areas that have received significant rainfall over the past week. With the flooding threat expected to be localized, shied away from a flash flood watch for any of the local area. With the cold front essentially washing out across the local area on Wednesday, a cloudy, cool and unsettled day appears to be in store, with high temperatures not expected to climb out of the 60s across a large portion of the area. This break in heat will be relatively short lived, however, as temperatures will rapidly return to normal as skies clear on Thursday...climbing back above normal for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. While the heaviest and most widespread precip is expected across the area over the next 36-48 hours, there will be additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the period as a fairly active, mostly zonal, upper level flow pattern will bring periodic chances for weather across at least parts of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Latest VWP from the radar indicating that 60KT winds out of the south are screaming across the region this morning...ahead of a cold front which is expected to track southeast across the local area today. Expect these strong winds aloft...and marginal LLWS (given the strong surface winds) to continue through the morning hours...eventually letting up around 18/14Z as the surface winds slowly start to shift and weaken ahead of the approaching front. Expect MVFR CIGS to then settle in as well...and a chance for a VCSH around midday...before more predominant SHRAs and TSRAs develop along the front around 18/22Z...and continue through the end of the TAF period as this front is expected to stall near or just southeast of the terminals...bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi