Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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109 FXUS63 KGID 231153 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 653 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Flooding continues in some areas north of I-80 as a result of heavy rainfall Friday night. Most of the creeks/rivers have either already crested or are cresting now early this morning. - Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening and again Monday and Tuesday evenings. Marginal risk for severe weather the next 3 days. - Advisory-level heat (heat index around 105) is likely most areas on Monday, and may extend into Tuesday afternoon across our southeastern zones. - More widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms return Wednesday night through Friday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today (Warmer and Isolated T-Storms Western Areas)... The wind will be turning around back out of the south and our warming trend will begin with highs back into the 90s. Most areas should be dry, but we could see some late afternoon/early evening heat of the day thunderstorms that would be rather isolated and focused across our western zones. These thunderstorms would likely diminish rather quickly after sunset as they slide east and again most areas will likely remain dry. There is a marginal risk for severe weather with these storms, but the lower to mid level winds are rather weak. Therefore, if any storms do become severe they will likely only be briefly severe and along the lower threshold of severe criteria. Monday (Hottest Day with a little more widespread late day thunderstorms)... Forecast models are in good agreement that highs in the Tri- Cities should be right around 100 with a tight NBM cluster between 97-103 centered on 100. Our current forecast highs would make this the hottest day of the year so far for most of our forecast area. In coordination with surrounding offices we have issued a heat advisory for Monday afternoon/evening. Forecast models are in better agreement with more widespread thunderstorms Monday evening than we expect this evening. In addition, thunderstorms could last longer into the evening. Mid level winds are still looking rather weak on Monday with 500 mb flow of only 10 to 20 kts. It will be hard to get large hail down to the surface with temperatures so warm on Monday and fairly weak shear, so locally heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe weather threats. Tuesday (Cold Frontal Passage maybe some T-Storms eastern areas)... A cold front will track southeast across the forecast area through the day. This will result in cooler temperatures across Nebraska zones, but some of our Kansas counties could still climb above 100 before the cold front reaches them. Therefore, another heat advisory may be needed for Tuesday afternoon across our southeastern zones depending on the timing of the front. The best chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday will be across our eastern zones and primarily just east of our forecast area along the front. Wednesday through Saturday (Mainly Cooler / Several Rain Chances)... Most Nebraska zones should cool back down into the 80s behind the cold front on Wednesday, but although also cooler across Kansas, highs may still be in the lower 90s across Kansas zones. A subtle little trough will track across the plains Wednesday night bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms to the region. There appears to be another weak wave moving through on Thursday and then the main upper trough should pass through on Friday giving us several days with decent chances (40-60%) for thunderstorms. Friday should be a warmer day (90s) just ahead of the main upper trough. Next weekend then appears to start off cooler with the NBM spread primarily in the lower 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The wind will remain light and out of the south throughout the TAF valid period including today and tonight. Skies should be clear through most of the day, but we could see a few high clouds by evening with a slight chance for vicinity thunderstorms, mainly west of the area, but possibly approaching KEAR. Strong low level wind shear is expected later tonight within a few hours after sunset. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Wesely