310
FXUS63 KGID 260907
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal high temperatures (10+ degrees above
  climo) and dry weather expected through the upcoming weekend.

- A cold front will bring breezy/strong north winds Monday
  afternoon (25-35 MPH) along with cooler temperatures Tuesday.
  This dip in temperatures will be brief, with above normal
  temperatures quickly returning next Wednesday.

- The combination of strong north winds and relative humidity
  values below 30 percent Monday afternoon may result in a brief
  period of elevated fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Not a whole lot to talk about this morning. After another
seasonably cool start to the day, clear skies and southerly flow
will result in another very warm late September day across the
region. Given the past couple of days where temperatures have
exceeded guidance by a few degrees, raised afternoon highs for
most locations across south central Nebraska and north central
Kansas the next two days.

Overall, expect high pressure aloft to remain in place through
the upcoming weekend, only being temporarily flattened by an
upper level trough/surface cold front Monday afternoon...before
rebuilding for the remainder of the forecast period. Ahead of
this front, temperatures will remain well above normal through
Monday with a drop into the upper 60s/lower 70s expected for
Tuesday. Despite being much cooler than temperatures of late,
temperatures will only be marginally below normal as typical
highs for the first of October are only in the lower 70s...and
falling rapidly.

Again, Tuesday`s cooldown will be brief, with well above normal
temperatures returning for the remainder of the period. While
no precipitation is expected with the cold front itself Monday,
the main impact will likely be the strong north winds in its
wake, which could gust 25-35 mph Monday afternoon. Given the
strong winds, drying fuels and minimum relative humidity values
near to below 30 percent behind this front, will need to
monitor Monday for potential fire weather concerns as at least
elevated fire weather conditions look possible for at least a
brief period of time Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence VFR conditions through the period with clear
skies and good VSBYS anticipated.

Overnight...expect light winds to persist at both terminals as
surface winds have decoupled and a fairly weak surface pressure
gradient remains in place across the region. Winds should
increase out of the south during the morning hours Thursday as
low pressure intensifies on the lee side of the Rockies and
surface high pressure remains to our east...with wind gusts
near 20KTS possible for much of the afternoon hours.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi