575
FXUS63 KGID 232050
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for thunderstorms today have decreased.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for Monday. Another Heat
  Advisory will likely be needed for Tuesday, especially in KS.

- Seasonable temperatures from the middle to end of the week,
  with more chances for rain/thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Skies remain clear across the area, and CAMs have backed off
considerably on any chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening. A chance of sprinkles was maintained in the
forecast, but that might even be a stretch. If anything does
get going to our west, it will struggle with pretty warm air
aloft (12-14C at 700hPa) and will likely dissipate before it
reaches our western zones.

Monday is still on-track to be the warmest day of the week,
with many near-term models showing that most areas have a shot
to approach/exceed 100 degrees. Heat index values around 105 are
expected for most areas. No need to change the current Heat
Advisory.

Late Monday afternoon and evening looks a little more favorable
for thunderstorm development than today thanks to the arrival of
an upper shortwave. Warm midlevel temperatures will still
provide some inhibition, but CAMs show isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the 5pm to 11pm timeframe.
Limited shear will likely keep the storm mode rather "messy" and
disorganized. That said, some thunderstorms clusters could
potentially produce isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail.

A cold front moves into the region on Tuesday, leading to
slightly cooler temperatures (especially north), but portions of
Kansas and far southern Nebraska may still approach 100 degrees.
If this trend holds, another Heat Advisory will likely be
needed. Spotty showers and thunderstorms may also develop in the
vicinity of this front late in the afternoon through the
evening. Again, this does not appear to be a significant severe
threat, but a few marginally severe storms are certainly
possible.

The upper pattern turns a bit more active mid to late next week,
resulting in higher chances for more widespread rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will also trend back closer to
"normal" (highs in the upper 80s and low 90s). The best chances
for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday as a deeper
shortwave moves through the region. Based on the CSU-MLP severe
probs Friday will be a day to watch, as they already show a 15
percent chance of severe centered over the central/northern
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High confidence VFR conditions through this period. LLWS is
possible at GRI/EAR tonight.

South to southwesterly winds are expected through the entirety
of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels