Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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424 FXUS63 KGID 212302 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 602 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for portions of central Nebraska this evening. Main timeframe is 5pm to midnight. - Only low chances for thunderstorms (10-20%) Saturday through Tuesday. Rain/t-storm chances increase again mid to late next week. - Heat returns early next week. High temperatures around 100 degrees are expected on Monday, and heat index values may exceed 105 degrees in some spots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 As of 3pm, radar shows a few thunderstorms already developing over SW Nebraska, moving northeast. The expectation is that this will continue to develop into a few clusters, impacting areas north of Highway 6, mainly in the 5pm to midnight timeframe. Convective parameters are not "off the charts" by any means, but are at least marginally supportive of some supercell features (1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 35kt effective shear). Hail and wind will be the main threats, but some localized flooding is also possible. The 18Z HRRR shows some isolated maxima of 3.00" of rain along the Hwy 92 area, but that is certainly on the higher end compared to the 12Z HREF. Northwesterly winds arrive on Saturday as a cold front moves through the area. There is a low chance for a few showers or storms to redevelop in our southeastern zones along this front, but near-term models largely keep this to safely our southeast. For many areas, tomorrow is expected to be the coolest day through next week. Upper level riding moves into the area early next week, allowing temperatures to climb into the 90s on Sunday, and to near 100 degrees on Monday. There are low chances for thunderstorms each of these days, but midlevel capping will keep storms pretty isolated. A series of upper shortwaves will break down the ridge and bring us increasing thunderstorm chances from the middle to end of next week. Temperatures return closer to climatology (upper 80s and low 90s) for Wednesday/Thursday. Thursday through Friday appears to be the next best chance for rain for most of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Watching current radar trends along with HRRR output, decided to shrink the VCTS timing for GRI as HRRR doesn`t bring the current convection near GRI until 03z. There are a few pop-up showers ahead of the convection that will have to be watched, otherwise 3-7z is best chance to see something. EAR I shrank the backside by an hour as convection looks to be east of the TAF site by then.21z HRRR generally keeps the convection north of I-80 this evening. Southerly winds should taper off this evening and will pickup and become NW around mid-day tomorrow as a cold front will move through the area. The models are hinting at a MVFR ceiling tomorrow morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda