174
FXUS63 KGID 222330
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding continues in some areas north of I-80 as a result of
  heavy rainfall Friday night.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday
  afternoon/evening and again Monday evening. Marginal risk for
  severe weather both of these days.

- Advisory-level heat (heat index 105+) is possible for portions
  of the area both Monday and Tuesday.

- More widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms return mid
  to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A cold front has moved through the forecast area, ushering in
breezy northwest winds and some pesky cloud cover. Despite this,
temperatures have still risen to near our climatological
normals in most locations (90s and low 90s). Skies continue to
clear this evening, and any thunderstorm development should
stay to our south...which is good news for areas that are still
experiencing runoff flooding from last night.

A warning trend starts on Sunday as upper ridging builds in from
the west. Southwestern portions of the area could push 100
degrees, and 90s are expected for most of the rest of the area.
CAMs show a few thunderstorms developing mid to late afternoon
over western portions of the area, but I expect coverage to
remain pretty isolated due to capping/warm midlevel
temperatures. Any storms that do develop would be able to tap
into MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40kts and
potentially produce some severe hail/wind.

Monday still appears to be the warmest day of the week, with the
entire area making a run into the upper 90s and low 100s. Heat
index values may reach/exceed advisory criteria (105 degrees) in
some spots. Again, there is a chance for a few spotty storms,
some of which could be marginally severe, late Monday afternoon
through the evening.

A front moves into the region on Tuesday, but timing of this
feature is still somewhat uncertain. The NBM has trended warmer
compared to 24 hours ago, and parts of our area (especially KS)
could see another day of 105+ heat indices.

Wednesday through Friday will be "cooler" as a series of
shortwave break down the upper ridge. That said, highs are
still expected to reach/exceed climo for much of the area each
of these days. These shortwaves will also bring us better
chances for more widespread rain/thunderstorms, especially
Thursday night through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the few
clouds still remaining at 3k ft to 4k ft AGL expected to clear
out of the area this evening. Clear skies are expected at the
terminals from late this evening through the end of the TAF
period. That being said, there is a low chance (10-20%) of
patchy fog reducing visibility to around 4SM to 5SM between
11Z-13Z Sunday morning (mainly at KGRI), but as chances are so
low, did not include that in the TAFs.

Northerly winds will diminish to 8 kts or less this evening
before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will become
southerly Sunday morning, and should generally remain 8 kts or
less. During the afternoon Sunday, southerly winds will increase
to 9-12 kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Hickford