Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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779 FXUS63 KGID 232340 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for thunderstorms today have decreased. - Heat Advisory remains in effect for Monday. Another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Tuesday, especially in KS. - Seasonable temperatures from the middle to end of the week, with more chances for rain/thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Skies remain clear across the area, and CAMs have backed off considerably on any chance for thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. A chance of sprinkles was maintained in the forecast, but that might even be a stretch. If anything does get going to our west, it will struggle with pretty warm air aloft (12-14C at 700hPa) and will likely dissipate before it reaches our western zones. Monday is still on-track to be the warmest day of the week, with many near-term models showing that most areas have a shot to approach/exceed 100 degrees. Heat index values around 105 are expected for most areas. No need to change the current Heat Advisory. Late Monday afternoon and evening looks a little more favorable for thunderstorm development than today thanks to the arrival of an upper shortwave. Warm midlevel temperatures will still provide some inhibition, but CAMs show isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, mainly in the 5pm to 11pm timeframe. Limited shear will likely keep the storm mode rather "messy" and disorganized. That said, some thunderstorms clusters could potentially produce isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail. A cold front moves into the region on Tuesday, leading to slightly cooler temperatures (especially north), but portions of Kansas and far southern Nebraska may still approach 100 degrees. If this trend holds, another Heat Advisory will likely be needed. Spotty showers and thunderstorms may also develop in the vicinity of this front late in the afternoon through the evening. Again, this does not appear to be a significant severe threat, but a few marginally severe storms are certainly possible. The upper pattern turns a bit more active mid to late next week, resulting in higher chances for more widespread rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures will also trend back closer to "normal" (highs in the upper 80s and low 90s). The best chances for thunderstorms will be Thursday and Friday as a deeper shortwave moves through the region. Based on the CSU-MLP severe probs Friday will be a day to watch, as they already show a 15 percent chance of severe centered over the central/northern Plains. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Clear skies will give way to a few clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL this evening. Clear skies are expected to return Monday morning, before SCT skies at or above 20k ft AGL return Monday afternoon. Winds: Southerly winds at 8-12 kts will persist into Monday morning before becoming southwesterly and increasing to 10-15 kts. Gusts will be around 20-25 kts Monday afternoon. LLWS: LLWS is expected at KEAR and KGRI between 24/02Z and 24/14Z. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041- 046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007- 017>019. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Hickford