768
FXUS63 KGID 231734
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flooding continues in some areas north of I-80 as a result of
  heavy rainfall Friday night. Most of the creeks/rivers have
  either already crested or are cresting now early this morning.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible late this
  afternoon/evening and again Monday and Tuesday evenings.
  Marginal risk for severe weather the next 3 days.

- Advisory-level heat (heat index around 105) is likely most
  areas on Monday, and may extend into Tuesday afternoon across
  our southeastern zones.

- More widespread chances for rain and thunderstorms return
  Wednesday night through Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Today (Warmer and Isolated T-Storms Western Areas)...

The wind will be turning around back out of the south and our
warming trend will begin with highs back into the 90s. Most
areas should be dry, but we could see some late afternoon/early
evening heat of the day thunderstorms that would be rather
isolated and focused across our western zones. These
thunderstorms would likely diminish rather quickly after sunset
as they slide east and again most areas will likely remain dry.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather with these storms,
but the lower to mid level winds are rather weak. Therefore, if
any storms do become severe they will likely only be briefly
severe and along the lower threshold of severe criteria.


Monday (Hottest Day with a little more widespread late day
thunderstorms)...

Forecast models are in good agreement that highs in the Tri-
Cities should be right around 100 with a tight NBM cluster
between 97-103 centered on 100. Our current forecast highs would
make this the hottest day of the year so far for most of our
forecast area. In coordination with surrounding offices we have
issued a heat advisory for Monday afternoon/evening. Forecast
models are in better agreement with more widespread
thunderstorms Monday evening than we expect this evening.
In addition, thunderstorms could last longer into the evening.
Mid level winds are still looking rather weak on Monday with 500
mb flow of only 10 to 20 kts. It will be hard to get large hail
down to the surface with temperatures so warm on Monday and
fairly weak shear, so locally heavy rainfall and strong
thunderstorm winds will be the primary severe weather threats.


Tuesday (Cold Frontal Passage maybe some T-Storms eastern
areas)...

A cold front will track southeast across the forecast area
through the day. This will result in cooler temperatures across
Nebraska zones, but some of our Kansas counties could still
climb above 100 before the cold front reaches them. Therefore,
another heat advisory may be needed for Tuesday afternoon across
our southeastern zones depending on the timing of the front. The
best chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday will be across our
eastern zones and primarily just east of our forecast area along
the front.


Wednesday through Saturday (Mainly Cooler / Several Rain
Chances)...

Most Nebraska zones should cool back down into the 80s behind
the cold front on Wednesday, but although also cooler across
Kansas, highs may still be in the lower 90s across Kansas
zones. A subtle little trough will track across the plains
Wednesday night bringing a decent chance for thunderstorms to
the region. There appears to be another weak wave moving through
on Thursday and then the main upper trough should pass through
on Friday giving us several days with decent chances (40-60%)
for thunderstorms. Friday should be a warmer day (90s) just
ahead of the main upper trough. Next weekend then appears to
start off cooler with the NBM spread primarily in the lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

High confidence VFR conditions through this period. LLWS is
possible at GRI/EAR tonight.

South to southwesterly winds are expected through the entirety
of the forecast period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Mangels/Wesely