Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
573 FXUS63 KGID 191146 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 646 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will impact portions of the local area today. Severe weather is not anticipated, and most areas will see less than one half inch of additional precipitation. - Enjoy the cool weather today as temperatures are expected to rebound back to near normal on Thursday, and peak next Monday and Tuesday when widespread heat index values over 100 degrees are anticipated. - Various small chances for thunderstorms are expected across the local area through early next week, although widespread or severe weather is not anticipated. In fact, after today, many areas may actually remain dry through the remainder of the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms is setting up from Furnas through Greeley counties this morning. With minimal instability in place (less than 500J/KG), severe weather today is not anticipated with this or any additional development today. And while just about any location could be clipped by a scattered shower/thunderstorm throughout the day, additional rainfall totals will be on the lighter side, with most locations seeing less than a quarter to half an inch of additional rainfall accumulation. The most notable aspect of today will likely be the well below normal temperatures for mid-June, with the cloud cover and occasional shower/thunderstorm activity keeping afternoon temperatures in the mid 60s across south central Nebraska to the lower 70s across our south. While this will make it the coolest afternoon for most folks in almost exactly a month, afternoon temperatures will still be well above record cool maximum temperatures for the date (which are in the upper 50s for both Grand Island and Hastings). For tonight...expect the cold front across central Kansas this morning to gradually lift north this evening, becoming the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development tonight. With the remnants of this front expected to move into north central Nebraska by late tonight, expect the focus of shower and thunderstorm activity this evening to be mostly north of I-80, and again, this thunderstorm activity should remain non- severe...with the heaviest rainfall (greater than one half an inch) expected north of Highway 92. For Thursday, expect temperatures to rapidly rebound to normal as southerly flow and clearing skies will help temperatures again reach the 80s across the local area. While there will be additional small chances for thunderstorms across our extreme north (and closer to the aforementioned front) throughout the day, the vast majority of the local area will remain dry. A progressive upper level flow with several weak disturbances will then persist across the central/northern plains for several days, before high pressure builds across the southwest and extends across the local area early next week. This should result in various small chances for thunderstorms each day across at least parts of the local area, although with no anticipated strong disturbances, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is not anticipated - and as mentioned in the key messages, much of the local are will likely remain dry after today. With the upper level ridge then anticipated to build across the southwest and extend across the local area early next week, hot weather can be expected to return, and already have indications that heat index values will likely be in the 100 to 105 degree range across the vast majority of the local area to start next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: A band of light rain and isolated thunderstorms is moving across the area this morning. While CIGS should remain VFR through most of the day, with a chance for a -SHRA from time to time, a mid level cloud deck near 7-8KFT should persist through the afternoon hours, with CIGS potentially becoming MVFR towards the tail end of the period when the cold front to our south eventually lifts back north, bringing another chance for additional SHRAs and TSRAs late in the evening. Overall...winds will be northeasterly at less than 10 KTS to start the period, eventually becoming more easterly late in the period as the aforementioned front lifts north. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Rossi AVIATION...Rossi