Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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365 FXUS63 KGID 181734 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1234 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers storms east of Highway 281 through noon. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. - Spotty redevelopment in the late afternoon/evening (5pm-11pm). Most will stay dry, but a few storms could be strong to marginally severe. - Still on track for widespread rain this weekend. - Cooler next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 As expected, the line of thunderstorms continues to weaken as it moves eastward across the area. CAMs show spotty/showers storms lingering over the eastern half of the area through noon before finally completely clearing out. There is a low chance that a few thunderstorms redevelop late this afternoon and evening (5pm to 11pm) in eastern portions of the area. If these storms develop, convective parameters would favor strong to severe updrafts, therefore the eastern half of the area remains in a "Marginal Risk". That being said, coverage of these storms should be pretty limited, and its possible that our area misses out entirely. After dry/quiet weather on Thursday, another upper low will approach from the west on Friday. A few showers/t-storms remain possible Friday evening and overnight, but this potential continues to decrease, and the main window for rain/thunder appears to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The overall threat for severe weather is pretty low, with the CSU- MLP only highlighting a small 5% area in NE/KS. Exact details on rainfall totals remain quite uncertain at this range, but totals over 1.00" are likely (50-80% chance) across much of the area. Some deterministic model runs show as much as 3-4" in some areas. This is certainly possible on a localized bases, but global ensembles indicate that rainfall totals in the 1.00-2.50" range will be most common (roughly the 25th to 75th percentile). Cooler air then filters in behind this system. High temperatures may struggle to reach 70 degrees in many locations through at least the first half of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: Breezy south southwest winds gusting to between 20 and 24 kts this afternoon will quickly die down to less than 10 kts and become southeasterly this evening around dusk. A frontal boundary will slide through around dawn resulting in a northwesterly wind tomorrow morning. Low clouds are the main concern for the first few hours this afternoon as we could see periods of MVFR ceilings, especially at KEAR. The low clouds will eventually clear out, but probably not until around sunset. There is a very small possibility of patchy fog around dawn tomorrow, but too low of a probability to include in the TAF at this point in time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Beda/Wesely