Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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607 FXUS63 KGID 080951 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 451 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning, and again this evening and tonight. Severe weather will mainly remain to the south, but a couple of strong to severe storms may clip our north central Kansas counties this evening and tonight. - Cooler weather is expected this weekend with high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. - Periodic low chances of precipitation through the work week. - Warmer temperatures return for the latter half of the week with high temperatures in the 80s and 90s expected Wednesday through Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Ended up getting fog with visibilities of half a mile or less across much of south central Nebraska this morning, so issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 9AM across portions of the area. This includes the entirety of Interstate 80 across the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 This morning, a few showers and storms are moving across northern and central Kansas along a surface disturbance associated with low pressure centered in Kansas. These are expected to produce mainly just a few showers and remain sub- severe. Patchy fog is also expected to develop this morning across portions of the forecast area. Widespread dense fog is not expected at this time, and any fog that does develop will dissipate by 9 or 10 AM. Today and tonight... A weak shortwave disturbance moving across NE and KS this morning will bring a chance (20-30%) of a few showers and storms across mainly southern Nebraska later this morning and into the afternoon, but these storms will not be severe. Another stronger shortwave disturbance will move across the region this evening and tonight, bringing more rain and thunderstorms. Most of this activity is expected to move generally southeast from eastern Colorado into Kansas and generally miss our forecast area. Still, there is the chance that some of this does enter our north central Kansas counties. The strongest storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts, and a Marginal Risk for severe weather does include a portion of Rooks County, KS. CAMs do keep some of this just a touch north into north central Kansas, so would not be surprised to see stronger thunderstorm activity there as well. Thinking the window for severe weather is limited as instability dives south of the area during the evening. Elsewhere, very little precipitation is expected from this system, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. High temperatures today will be in the 70s across south central Nebraska and the low to mid-80s across north central Kansas. Sunday through Tuesday... An upper ridge will develop over much of the western CONUS Sunday and move across the Plains Monday, leaving the area dry through the daytime hours Monday. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s. Monday evening through Tuesday, a trough will move across the area, bringing a return to at least low end chances (20-40%) for precipitation. Wednesday through Friday... An upper ridge will move across the northern Plains and a very broad area of high pressure over the desert Southwest will expand northeast into the Plains, although there are periodic low end precipitation chances across portions of Nebraska and Kansas during this time. Temperatures across our area will be hotter Wednesday through Friday with highs into the 80s and 90s...the hottest day likely being Thursday with highs across north central Kansas forecast to be in the mid-90s. Models indicate an area of low pressure moving from off the southern California coast to the central Plains during this period, but there is a lack of model consensus as to when or if this impacts our forecast area...but it is something to keep watching with potentially more storms Friday evening into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Mostly cloudy skies are expected through the TAF period. IFR CIGS are expected through most of the morning Saturday before improving to MVFR late in the morning, with VFR CIGS returning Saturday afternoon through the end of the TAF period. Within this timeframe will be the chance for patchy fog with visibility expected to be reduced to 3SM or 4SM, most likely from 11-16Z at KGRI and 09-15Z at KEAR. Winds will be northeasterly early in this TAF period but become northerly at 5-10 kts around 08Z. Winds will increase to 10-15 kts late Saturday morning, then become northeasterly again and gusting to around 20 kts Saturday afternoon. NE winds will diminish to around 10 kts Saturday evening through the end of this TAF period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ041- 046>049-060>064-072>077. KS...None. && $$ UPDATE...Hickford DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Hickford