311
FXUS63 KGID 120502
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1202 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Have added a slight chance (20%) of thunderstorms to our
  northern counties for very late tonight into the first part of
  Wed daytime (see UPDATE section below).

- Temperatures heat up on Wednesday with highs in the 90s to
  possibly around 100 degrees. Heat index values between 100 to
  105 degrees are expected on Thursday across portions of north
  central Kansas.

- Wednesday late afternoon-evening roughly the northeast 1/4 of
  our coverage area is under a Marginal Risk of severe, BUT a
  strengthening cap COULD keep us storm-free (a conditional
  threat).

- Storm chances (15% to around 25%) increase Thursday evening
  and night along the leading edge of a cold front. Some of
  these storms may be strong to severe.

- Rain and storm chances continue Friday through early next week
  with the highest chances (20% to near 70%) Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

-- Mainly Regarding the introduction of slight thunderstorm
 chances to our far northern counties very late overnight into
 Wed AM:

- Now that our "sneaky"/spotty late afternoon/early evening
  storms near the I-80/Hwy 6 corridors have all but faded away,
  we have very high confidence that MOST of our coverage area
  (CWA) will be DRY most of these next 12 hours or so.

- That being said, just introduced some slight (20%) chances for
  spotty storms to the very late night-Wed AM time frame
  (officially 5-11 AM) for our far northern CWA (mainly
  along/north of Highway 92). Although most of this potential
  activity should remain north-northeast of our CWA altogether
  (where mid-level temps will be a bit cooler/less capping),
  there are just enough hints in higher-res models that our
  northern zones could be grazed...that felt more comfortable
  with the slight chances. Fortunately, any such possible
  morning activity should not be severe due to fairly weak
  instability.

- Will defer to incoming night shift to further assess the VERY
  IFFY chance for isolated/spotty (but potentially severe?)
  storms for late Wed afternoon-evening (strong capping could
  keep storms at bay completely), but at least for now mainly
  the northeast 1/4 of our CWA remains under a Marginal Risk
  from SPC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Today and tonight...

Light and mostly variable winds along with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies are across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas. High temperatures today are expected to mostly be in
the mid to upper 80s. Winds will increase out of the south tonight
with clear to mostly clear skies. Low temperatures tonight will be
in the 60s.

Wednesday through Saturday night...

An upper level ridge will be centered over Arizona and New Mexico on
Wednesday. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest
Wednesday afternoon as a surface low to the north of the area
strengthens. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon are expected to heat
up into the 90s with some places possibly reaching the triple
digits. The areas most likely to reach the triple digits will be
south and west of a line from Lexington to Holdrege to Phillipsburg
and Stockton. Some areas in central Nebraska may have heat index
values that are around or at 100 degrees. A cold front will begin
moving into Nebraska Wednesday night. Low temperatures Wednesday
night across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

The front will continue moving through the area on Thursday with
breezy northeasterly winds. Temperatures will be cooler from the
previous day with highs ranging from the mid 80s to around 100
degrees. Heat index values across portions of north central Kansas
may get over 100 degrees but will likely stay under 105 degrees. Low
temperatures Thursday night will range from the upper 50s to near 70
degrees. Rain and storm chances (15% to around 25%) will increase
Thursday evening and night along the leading edge of the front. Some
of these storms may become strong to severe.

Upper ridging will be over the southern and central Plains on Friday
with upper disturbances moving over Nebraska and Kansas. These
disturbances will allow for continued chances (15% to around 30%) of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Winds will be gusty out of the
southeast. Temperatures will continue cooling from the previous day
with highs mostly in the 80s. Upper disturbances will move over the
area Friday night with chances (20% to near 70%) of showers and
thunderstorms increasing. Low temperatures Friday night will be in
the low 60s to low 70s. An upper trough will continue over the
southern and central Plains on Saturday. This will result in
continued chances (15% to near 40%) of showers and thunderstorms.
High temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 80s to mid
90s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be similar to those from
the previous night.

Sunday through Monday night...

A cold front will approach or begin passing through the area on
Sunday. This uncertainty in frontal position will impact high
temperatures on Sunday. At this time, am expecting high temperatures
on Sunday to range from the upper 80s to the upper 90s. Rain and
storms are expected along and behind the front. High temperatures on
Monday are expected to be in the low 80s to mid 90s with rain and
storm chances (15% to near 25%). Low temperatures early next week
will generally be in the low 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. LLWS is
anticipated at both TAF sites from 12/06Z through 12/13Z.

A few clouds at 8-10k ft AGL and perhaps another layer at around
20k ft AGL will filter through the area overnight and Wednesday
morning with clear skies expected from around noon through the
end of the period. Winds will be southerly at 6-8 kts overnight,
but will increase around daybreak today. Winds will become SWrly
after sunrise, with gusts of 20-25 kts this morning and 25-30
kts this afternoon. Winds will diminish to 10 kts or less this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Hickford