644
FXUS63 KGID 211133
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
633 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
  mainly along and north of I-80 after 6 PM.

- There will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms across
  portions of the area most evenings Monday through Thursday.

- The warmup will continue today with highs in the 90s. The
  overall hottest day still appears to be Monday, with highs of
  97-103 and heat index values in the 100-105 degree range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

This Evening Severe Weather Potential...

A cold front will sink southeast across the north central
sandhills today with scattered multi-cell thunderstorms
likely developing between 4-6 PM just the northeast of our
forecast area and then moving into our area mainly after 6 PM.
MLCAPE values will generally max out between 1,000-2,000 J/KG
with deep layer shear values around 30 KTS. The best chance for
severe weather will initially be just northwest of our forecast
area (Custer County Area), but storms will slide northeast with
time and perhaps into our northern zones. Thunderstorm chances
will quickly decrease as you head south of Highway 6. Most of
any storms should exit to the northeast of our area by around or
not long after 3 AM.

Be ready for a little more heat and humidity today pumped
northward on gusty southerly winds at over 30 mph at times.
Highs today will be back up into the lower 90s with heat index
values into the mid 90s.


Saturday and Sunday (Warm and Dry)...

A cold front will swing through the region Saturday morning
knocking high temperatures back down into the mid 80s for most
Nebraska zones. However, the front will be slower to reach
Kansas and thus Kansas zones could still climb back up into the
90s on Saturday. Northerly winds behind the front on Saturday
will again become southerly by Sunday with warmer 90s spreading
back across the region. The timing of the Saturday morning
frontal passage is not very conducive for thunderstorms across
our area. Any thunderstorms will most likely hold off until the
front passes southeast of our area late Saturday
afternoon/evening. Therefore, will continue to call for a dry
weekend for most if not all of our forecast area.


Monday through Thursday (Hot with Evening Thunderstorm
Chances)...

An upper level ridge fairly typical for the summer months will
take shape across the southern/southwestern United States while
weak shortwaves track quickly across the northern United States.
Our area will at times be in the battle ground region on the
northern periphery of the upper ridge possibly catching some
evening thunderstorms that develop within the westerly to
northwesterly upper level flow. It`s hard to time these subtle
shortwaves this far out and thus NBM guidance is pretty low with
our POPs at the present time. Expect some POPs to increase for
next week while others days decrease as models get a better
handle on timing out the weak shortwaves. At this point the main
upper ridge appears to remain south or southwest of our area
thus allowing us to still see continued off and on rain
chances. We may come close to heat advisory criteria on Monday,
but at this point it seems like heat advisory criteria is more
likely to remain just south of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

The wind will remain rather consistent out of the south today.
South winds are expected to increase later this morning with
gusts by late morning into early afternoon reaching up to
around 30 mph at times. VFR ceilings are expected to continue
with showers and thunderstorms likely remaining northwest of our
TAF sites this morning. Slight chances for thunderstorms will
return to the forecast this evening and have been added to the
TAF with this forecast package. At this time, the better
chances for showers and thunderstorms through the TAF period
will be north of our TAF sites.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely