Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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567 FXUS63 KGID 171745 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy and warm today. Thunderstorms arrive from the west tonight. Western areas could see marginally severe winds (50-60 MPH) as storms move into the area. - Lingering storms on Wednesday morning, with possible redevelopment in the afternoon. A few of the potential afternoon storms could be strong to marginally severe. - Low rain/t-storm chances (10-30%) return for Friday, and become likely (60-70% chance) late Friday night through Saturday night. - Cooler next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to track across the area early this morning. This activity should exit the area to the east by 8-9am, with dry conditions expected for the rest of the daytime. South winds will continue to increase through the afternoon, with peak wind gusts over 40 MPH expected for the northwestern half of the area. This afternoon, convection is expected to initially develop over CO/WY in response to the deep trough ejecting through the region. Models continue to indicate this quickly organizing into a eastward line of storms, likely producing severe winds. CAMs continue to indicate that storms will be on a weakening trend as they approach central KS/NE in the 9pm-midnight timeframe. The 00Z HREF neighborhood probabilities show a 50% chance for severe wind gusts over the Nebraska panhandle, but less than a 10% chance as they move east of North Platte. That being said, there is still some potential for some spotty strong to marginally severe wind gusts in western areas as storms arrive. This line of showers/storms then continues across the area, potentially lingering in eastern areas past sunrise. Remnant outflow could then could then provide a focus for a few thunderstorms to redevelop Wednesday afternoon. If these develop, the convective environment (MLCAPE ~2000j/kg and 0-6km shear 20-35kts) would support a few strong to severe storms. Thursday has continued to trend drier, with the latest NBM completely dry for the local area. The next system could bring us low chances for rain/t-storms as early as Friday afternoon/evening, but the most favorable timeframe will be as the main low moves through the area Saturday through Saturday night. Rain chances then gradually decrease Sunday through Monday as the system pushes northeastward and out of the area. Total QPF on the 00Z suite has remained pretty consistent. Over the next 7 days, the global "super" ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) shows a 50-80% chance for 1.00" or more of rain. Medium-range ensembles then continue to favor cooler-than-normal temperatures next week. Low temperatures in the 40s are likely for at least northwestern parts of the area many days next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: For the rest of this afternoon, expecting little in the way of cloud cover, and continued gusty southerly winds. Gusts around 30-35 MPH are not out of the question this afternoon. Winds diminish a touch this evening, but remain gusty out of the SSE. Main concern turns to mid-later evening into the overnight hours, as a line of showers/storms passes from west to east across the forecast area. At this time, the timing for the best chances at the terminal areas is roughly in the 06-10Z time frame...will be able to better refine that as activity develops out west and moves east early this evening. Kept a VCSH mention going through the early morning hours...confidence in just how much activity lingers is not high at this point...with the rest of this period expected to be dry. Kept this period VFR, but if sub-VFR conditions were to develop, it`d likely be in that time frame when precipitation is moving through/just after...confidence not high to drop it below VFR at this point. Gusty southerly winds look to redevelop mid-late morning tomorrow. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...ADP