692
FXUS63 KGID 300015
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
715 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...Aviation and Short Term Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk of severe storms mainly Monday evening
  across south central and central Nebraska. There is a threat
  of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

- Heat index values may get near or reach 105 degrees Monday
  across portions of north central Kansas.

- There is more uncertainty in regards to heat on Tuesday, but
  some locations across north central Kansas and far southern
  Nebraska may reach or exceed heat index values of 105 degrees.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

-- Regarding very low-end rain/weak thunderstorm chances
 overnight:

- Although not a "major change" from previous forecast, have
  opted to delay any mentionable (20+%) rain chances (PoPs)
  overnight in our southern coverage area (CWA) to AFTER 4am and
  have trimmed southward slightly (all 20+% PoPs now south of
  roughly a Beaver City- Beloit line).

- Confidence is VERY HIGH that the VAST MAJORITY of our coverage
  area (CWA) gets through the entire night dry, and even if we
  do see any spotty thunderstorms toward sunrise Sunday in our
  southern zones, they would be very weak with even elevated
  instability extremely meager (a thankful far cry from last
  night!). Will defer to overnight forecast crew to make any PoP
  adjustments to the Sunday daytime forecast (7 AM and beyond).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Today through Sunday night...

An upper level trough is over the Midwest and northern and central
Plains. A cold front has moved into south central and central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. High temperatures today will
range from the mid 70s to mid 80s with northerly winds. Winds become
easterly tonight as the surface high moves eastward. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible (15% to near 40% chance) late
tonight into Sunday morning across mainly north central Kansas as a
shortwave moves over/near the area. Showers and storms are expected
to continue through at least the morning hours on Sunday. Winds will
primarily be out of the east to southeast Sunday afternoon with an
upper ridge over the southern Plains. Showers and storms will remain
possible (15% to near 25% chance) Sunday afternoon with the
shortwave still over the area. High temperatures on Sunday are
expected to range from the mid to upper 70s. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely increase across the area Sunday night (up
to around a 50% chance) as another shortwave moves over the area.
Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the low to mid
60s.

Monday and Monday night...

Showers and thunderstorms may remain (15% to near a 60% chance)
across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas
through Monday morning. The NAM12 is showing a warm front moving
northward through Kansas on Monday possibly reaching the Nebraska
border. An upper trough will begin moving over the northern and
central Plains by Monday evening and will provide increased lift.
These parameters along with fairly high CAPE, wind shear, and lapse
rates will allow for some storms, mainly Monday evening, to become
severe. South central and central Nebraska are in a slight risk per
the SPC Day 3 outlook. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
will be possible. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north
the warm front will get on Monday which will influence high
temperatures. Generally expect high temperatures to range from the
upper 70s to around 100 degrees. Heat indices may approach or
reach 105 degrees across portions of north central Kansas. Low
temperatures Monday night are expected to range from the mid 60s
to near 80 degrees.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...

A cold front will move into the region as an upper trough passes
over the northern and central Plains on Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front Tuesday afternoon.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 80s
to around 100 degrees. There is some uncertainty with high
temperatures on Tuesday due to the cold front and possible (15% to
near 30% chance) showers and thunderstorms developing along the
front. If temperatures are on the warm side, heat indices may
get up to or possibly exceed 105 degrees across portions of
north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska on Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances (up to around a 55% chance) will
continue into Tuesday night. Low temperatures Tuesday night
will mostly be in the 60s.

Wednesday through Friday night...

High temperatures on Wednesday are expected to warm up into the mid
80s to lower 90s with southeast winds. Rain and storm chances
continue into Wednesday (15% to around 35%) and increase Wednesday
night (up to around a 50% chance) as a shortwave moves over the
area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will generally be in the 60s
with south to southeast winds. A cold front will begin moving into
Nebraska and Kansas on Thursday (Independence Day) as an upper
trough moves over the northern Plains and upper Midwest. High
temperatures on the holiday are expected to range from the
lower 80s to mid 90s. Temperatures Thursday night will range
from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures will be a little
cooler on Friday due to the cold front with highs mainly in the
80s. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 714 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility through the
vast majority of the period (perhaps an outside chance of MVFR
ceiling later Sunday afternoon?), and also high confidence in
rain/thunderstorm-free conditions through at least the first 18
hours (a spotty shower/weak thunderstorm not totally out of the
question Sunday afternoon). Winds will not be a significant
issue, with even gusts at-or-below 20KT throughout.

- Ceiling/visibility/rain/thunderstorm details:
Extremely high confidence in dry conditions and nothing more
than gradually-increasing mid-high level clouds through at least
the first 18 hours of the period. At some point Sunday
afternoon, there is a low chance that some lower-VFR or perhaps
higher-end MVFR clouds could develop especially at KEAR, but
kept coverage at scattered for now. Precipitation-wise,
introduced a generic "vicinity shower" (VCSH) starting 18Z as
some spotty/brief showers could pass through, but instability is
low enough that thunderstorms are unlikely (and would be weak
anyway).

- Wind details:
Direction will gradually transition from northeasterly this
evening, to southeasterly during the day Sunday as surface high
pressure departs off to the east. Sustained speeds tonight will
largely average under 10KT, and even the overall-strongest winds
of the period on Sunday will not be all that significant
(sustained 10-15KT/gusts up to around 20KT).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch