957
FXUS63 KGID 271150
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
650 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers/thunderstorms move across the area this morning.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening-overnight as
  storms move in from the west. Damaging wind gusts and large
  hail are possible with these storms.

- Warmer on Friday with strong to severe storms possible during
  the evening-overnight hours.

- Cooler this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s and dry
  weather expected during the daytime hours.

- Warmer and active weather next week, with highs in the 80s and
  90s and scattered chances (25-50%) for precipitation each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving into western portions
of the area as of 4:15AM. These showers/storms will continue to
gradually moving east through the morning hours. Rain is expected to
exit western portions of the area by the late morning hours, and
exit eastern portions of the area during the afternoon. Lingering
cloud coverage behind the rain will help to keep temperatures below
normal (mid 80s to low 90s) today. Highs today will range from the
upper 70s across northeastern portions of the area to the mid 80s
across southwestern portions of the area. Winds will be breezy
today, with southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30
mph.


Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and trek east into the
area this evening. While initially discrete, storms are expected to
develop into clusters/lines over time. Instability will build over
the area, with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE by the evening. Instability
combined with 35-40kts of shear will allow for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Storms that are able to remain discrete will carry a
potential for large hail, with clusters/lines having the potential
to producing damaging wind gusts. Storms will weaken as they move
further east across the area as instability begins to decrease.

Friday...

Any remaining showers from storms overnight are expected to quickly
exit eastern portions of the area Friday morning. Temperatures will
be warmer on Friday, as highs climb into the 80s (north) and 90s
(south). A cold front will move through the area on Friday, with
winds becoming northerly behind the front.

Thunderstorm chances return to the area Friday afternoon. Some
scattered thunderstorm development is possible along the cold front
Friday afternoon, though CAMs are fairly pessimistic on these storms
developing. Higher confidence exists in thunderstorms Friday evening
as storms that develop over the panhandle of Nebraska move into the
area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with 2000-2500
J/Kg of CAPE and 35-40kts of shear. A mix of clusters and discrete
cells are possible with these storms. The main concerns with these
storms are for damaging wind gusts and large hail. Storms would
continue across the area Friday night and come to an end by sunrise
on Saturday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Pleasant weather is in store for this weekend behind the cold
frontal passage. Highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s with partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies during the daytime hours. A few
scattered chances for thunderstorms exist during the late evening to
overnight hours.

Next week...

Warmer and active weather returns next week as an approaching trough
moves over the Rockies. A series of shortwaves will move across the
area next week, bringing scattered, on and off chances (25-50%) for
precipitation to the area each day. Highs next week will return to
the upper 80s and 90s, with the potential for highs in the 100s on
Monday across portions of north central Kansas. Model consensus
begins to break down towards the end of next week, with the ECMWF
showing broad troughing over the area, and the GFS having a ridge
building over the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Scattered rain showers will continue to move across the TAF
sites this morning, impacting KEAR before KGRI. SCT MVFR clouds
are possible at KEAR over the next few hours. Any rain will come
to an end late this morning from west to east. BKN clouds of
8-10k ft will persist throughout most of the day, with a few SCT
clouds below that near rainfall. Clouds heights will increase
after sunset. Near MVFR clouds are possible around the end of
the TAF period. Have used SCT050 to indicate this
potential/lowering. Southerly winds will increase this morning,
with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts around 25Kts. Winds
will decrease slightly overnight, with gusts falling to around
20Kts. Winds will remain southerly through the TAF period.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, at both KGRI
and KEAR. Confidence in how widespread storms will be and the
timing of storms is low, so have not included a mention in the
TAF. Gusty winds would be possible in any thunderstorm this
evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Davis
AVIATION...Davis