Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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670 FXUS63 KGID 131733 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures expected today, especially across the southern portions of the forecast area. Heat index values in north central Kansas expected to reach 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon. - Low chances (20%) of thunderstorms across north central Kansas this afternoon/evening, but IF any develop, they may be on the marginally severe side with large hail and strong winds. - There is a good chance (65-85%) of thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into the early hours Saturday morning, some of which may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Another chance of storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, and a few may be strong to severe as well with large hail and strong winds. Thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon and evening through next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Aloft, the region is under generally westerly flow with a broad ridge across the desert Southwest and an upper low sitting off the California coast. At the surface, a area of low pressure sits over the forecast area ahead of a cold front. Today and tonight... A cold front is expected to move south across the forecast area today, and the main question with the forecast is how quickly the front moves through. A faster forecast passage will keep northern portions of the area cooler with high temperatures in south central Nebraska in the low 80s to mid 90s, whereas the slower solution would favor slightly hotter temperatures with highs in south central Nebraska more in the upper 80s to near 100 degrees. We split the difference here and tried to get close to both solutions, but may need to adjust if temperatures get warmer than initially forecast. From the NE/KS state line and across north central Kansas, there is higher confidence in the hotter solution, and there is a 70% chance that heat index values reach between 100 and 105 degrees this afternoon, especially across Mitchell and Osborne counties. As the front moves through the area, north to northeasterly winds will increase, likely sustained at 15-25 mph and gusting to 25-30 mph (would not rule out occasional gusts up to 35 or even 40 mph). There is a slight chance (~20%) of thunderstorms developing near the frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening across north central Kansas. Some of these may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns, and the outlook from SPC highlights north central Kansas in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms. If storms do develop, the main timeframe is expected to be from around 4PM to 10PM. Friday... A few showers and thunderstorms may linger into Friday morning, with increased chances of thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon and evening. The previously mentioned upper low will evolve into a trough and move northeast into the area of the Rocky Mountains by Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely develop over the higher terrain and continue east into the forecast area Friday evening as a leading shortwave and then trough move across the region. Expect some of these storms to be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind, especially across southern and western portions of the forecast area. Severe storms should not be as widespread (but still possible) northeast as surface dewpoints will be lower and instability will not be as strong. The Day 2 outlook highlights a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for severe storms along and southwest of a line from Ansley to Kearney to Superior, NE (includes all 6 of our north central Kansas counties) and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) northeast of that line. High temperatures Friday will range from the low 80s to around 90 degrees. Saturday... After storms from the previous evening move out of the area Saturday morning, there will be another chance at thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of Highway 281...the day 3 outlook has that area in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms. High temperatures will be in the 80s and low 90s. Sunday through next Wednesday... There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms into the middle of next week with potentially a few upper level shortwave troughs passing through or just north of the area. While model variance prevents too many details regarding thunderstorm timing or severity, models do seem to be trending the greatest precipitation chances more over south central Nebraska as opposed to north central Kansas. Highs will generally be in the mid-80s to mid-90s through this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR through the period. Winds have increased from the N with the passage of a cold front, now sustained 15-20kt and gusts 25-30kt. Brzy conditions will continue through early eve as direction turns more NErly. Winds will veer further to E then SE late tonight and into Fri AM, with speeds generally 10-15kt. Skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy. Confidence: High. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hickford AVIATION...Thies