Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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364 FXUS65 KGJT 250414 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1014 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week. Near record highs are expected from Thursday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Satellite imagery shows the cutoff low off SoCal, a shortwave system descending out of the Gulf of Alaska towards the Pacific Northwest, rigging over the Intermountain West with a cloudless sky and troughing over the Mississippi Valley. The models are all in good agreement with the imagery. Little has changed with the forecast with the high pressure shifting east over thew Rocky Mountains tomorrow and east of the Divide by Thursday morning as the shortwave pushes into the Pacific Northwest. Expect mostly clear skies and light breezes through the short term period. Morning temperatures tomorrow and Thursday will run about five degrees above normal while tomorrow afternoon will get up to five to ten degrees above normal, near records in some areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 228 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Not sure what is going to be more impressive the tropical cyclone wrapping into the mid level cyclone over the SE.CONUS or the strength of the anticyclone over southern High Plains/Rockies on Thursday. Will have to call it a tie but these two features will stay intertwined will through the week and play a role in our forecast. The downstream low will create an effective and prolonged block of the flow in the mid to lower latitudes of the CONUS which will keep the strong ridge pretty much in the vicinity of the Southern Rockies through the weekend. It will also prevent an upstream low off the Cali Coast from making it inland. Just a piece of it looks to get absorbed by a passing trough in the northern stream on Sunday...otherwise a reflection of the low will still be there a week from now according to the latest global solutions. So with a strong anomalous high floating around the 4 Corners region...the hot and dry forecast will continue. Near record to record highs will be flirted with each day by the end of the week and likely into the start of the weekend. The only uncertainty in this forecast arises in the late Friday/early Saturday time frame. An area of channelized vorticity getting drug across the Rockies by the northern stream looks to get pulled into the eastern cyclone and hung up over the Colorado High Country/Divide area by the afternoon...creating some light convection. The mositure looks to come from a post frontal environment on the Front Range so much of the activity would be more probable to occur just east of our CWA. Something to watch other than the thermometer hit 10 to 15 degrees above normal at the end of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1012 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure will continue with VFR conditions at terminals through the TAF period. Light terrain driven winds and clear skies will continue. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT