200
FXUS65 KGJT 271124
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
524 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast this afternoon
  over the San Juans and along the central and southern Divide.
  Isolated to scattered showers and storms may produce gusty
  outflow winds.

- Otherwise, dry and unseasonably warm conditions persist
  through the seven-day forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Satellite imagery early this morning shows a lobe of moisture
hanging out over parts of central and eastern Colorado resulting in
areas of clouds along the Front Range. This moisture will get pushed
up and over parts of the Divide this afternoon as a shortwave trough
slides across eastern Colorado. The weak influx of moisture and lift
will pair with an unseasonably warm environment to result in
isolated to scattered storms over the San Juans and parts of the
central mountains. However, wetting rains are unlikely. Gusty
outflow winds will be the main threat of any showers and storms that
develop. Lingering moisture may result in an isolated storm or two
over the southern mountains on Saturday but a majority of the
forecast area will continue to experience dry conditions for the
start of the weekend.

High temperatures remain well above normal (10 to 15 degrees) for
late September thanks to a stagnant upper-level ridge overhead.
Daily record highs will be challenged again today (90) and tomorrow
(89) at GJT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

There remains no big changes to the pattern through the weekend
and really into early next week. The downstream low which will
have absorbed Helene will slowly be filling as we head into
Monday. The upper ridge remains firmly anchored over the 4
Corners region and a more compact cyclone will be heading
lingering near the SoCal Coast. This keeps the hot airmass in
place along with the dry conditions. There is some lingering
moisture over the San Juans going into Saturday which will
likely pops some more convective clouds but confidence extremely
low this will turn into anything of significance. Temperatures
will continue to run some 10 to 15 degrees above normal with 90
degrees expected over many of the lower desert valleys. The
latest 90 degree temperature on record at GJT is Sept 27th so
this may be pushed back by a few days with records possible each
day through Monday. The early to mid part of next week will
only be slightly cooler. The northern stream looks to be dipping
a bit farther south through the latitudes and finally being to
break down blockier pattern over the southern CONUS. There may a
better chance of perception showing in the forecast...but not
until late in the week. Confidence in models figuring this out
by then is not high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

VFR is the predominant flight category for the next 24 hours.
Aside from some passing mid and high clouds, skies will be
generally clear and winds will follow typical terrain driven
patterns. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop
(20-40% chance) in the vicinity of terminals near the Divide
this afternoon.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAA
LONG TERM...MDA
AVIATION...TGJT