111
FNUS75 KGJT 201537
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Carpenter Ridge RX...BLM
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
937 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on September 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A passing disturbance will keep showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast for Monday and early Tuesday. The primary threat will be
gusty outflow winds from passing storms. Wetting rains are not
likely Monday, but chances increase Monday night. Tuesday looks
like it will be mostly dry following the front. Light winds could
pose challenges for mixing and smoke dispersal.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....63-68.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 mph shifting to the west-northwest in the
                    afternoon at 8-12 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17000 knot-ft) increasing to good in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 6800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the
                    afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
CWR.................20 percent.
Min temperature.....38-43.
Max humidity........71-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000-31000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....West 10 mph.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
Max temperature.....62-67.
Min humidity........28-33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 mph shifting to northeast by afternoon
                    at 5-10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (21000 knot-ft) increasing to fair in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Lucas Boyer
Requested by...Brennon Ellis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422784.0/GJT
.DELDT 09/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bellis@blm.gov