852
FXUS63 KGLD 051510
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
910 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively dry Wednesday and Thursday with only a slight
  chance for storms Thursday night. Temperatures will be hot
  today with highs in the 90`s.

- A return to a more active weather pattern Friday night through
  Monday night as weather systems move off the Colorado front
  range and into the Tri-State area each afternoon through
  overnight hours.

- Hot with highs in the 90s Friday then cooling closer to normal
  highs for early June in the lower 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 908 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

No major changes for the latest ESTF update. From the latest LAV
guidance, did increase winds slightly from 15z onward into the
afternoon hours. Also trended this morning to more southwesterly,
with a switch to west-northwest for the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The short term period is forecast to be relatively warm and benign
with ridging trying to advance into the area. With the ridge`s
influence, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low 90`s today
while some drier air blows in from the west. Critical fire weather
conditions may briefly be hit in counties that border the Colorado
border, but recent green up makes explosive fire growth unlikely.
For tonight, clear skies are forecast to continue, but a trough axis
swinging through the Great Lakes is forecast to help push the lower
pressure further south and potentially bring in some colder air. It
won`t make much of a difference tonight with temperatures already
cooling to near dewpoint with clear skies and light winds. For
tomorrow high temperatures though, closer to average highs around
the mid 80`s are forecast with the slightly cooler air mass
overhead. Will need to watch for a few storms generally south of I-
70 as some moisture tries to return to the area with the low level
flow shifting to out of the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Long range guidance continues to indicate a somewhat more
active pattern this weekend into early next week. Synoptic
subsidence on the western periphery of an amplifying upper level
trough over the eastern CONUS will aid in the development of a
low-level (surface to 850 mb) ridge over portions of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley/Deep South -- and an influx of rich
low-level moisture from the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the
Southern and Central Plains -- where a synoptic regime
characterized by modest WNW-NW flow aloft will persist, a regime
in which [1] small amplitude waves on the southern fringe of
the mid-latitude westerlies may aid/enhance diurnal convective
development on the lee slopes of the central/northern Rockies
and [2] a large reservoir of instability (increasing with
eastern and southern extent) will strongly support upscale
convective growth and downstream propagation over portions of
the Central and Southern Plains. In other words, a pattern
supportive of long-lived mesoscale convective systems. Episodic
convection and severe weather are possible. At this range, in
this pattern, little more can be ascertained with confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. There is a very low chance (<10%) that some low stratus
(1000ft ceiling or less) or fog will move into KGLD around
13-15Z. Otherwise, near surface winds will be roughly from the
west through the day with gusts to around 20kts. Wind will then
lower to 8 kts or less this evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...BV
AVIATION...KAK