367
FXUS63 KGLD 270815
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late afternoon through overnight shower/thunderstorm chances
  resume through the next 7 days.

- Highs in the 90s Thursday, Friday then cooling into the 80s
  this weekend.

- Highs back to around 100 degrees Monday with 90s Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Heat index values of 100 to 104 currently forecast east of
  Highway 25 Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight...PWAT values increase from the south with values peaking
in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. A weather system will move off the
Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado around 8-9 PM
MDT, continuing east toward Highway 25 by 12 AM MDT then through the
remainder of the area east of Highway 25 overnight. Rainfall chances
will generally be in the 40%-60% range. Adjustments may be needed
(up and down) as there is a possibility of a small cluster of storms
to move generally along and north of the Interstate (HRRR model).
There is a threat for severe weather, mainly up until midnight along
and west of Highway 27 where there is some fairly healthy elevated
CAPE. Although moisture is plentiful per PWAT values, 0-6km winds in
the 20 to 30 mph range should limit any flooding/flash flooding
threat for the most part. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 60s to around 70.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers and thunderstorms (20%-60%) at 12z
along/east of Highway 25 continue toward the east through the
morning with a break anticipated for much of the area by mid to late
afternoon. There will be another chance (20%-50%) for thunderstorms
in the very late afternoon through evening hours before any activity
lifts northeast and out of the area.  Under a mostly to partly sunny
sky and breezy to windy southerly winds, high temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle 80s to middle 90s, coolest across the
east and hottest along the CO/KS border. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to upper 60s.

Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer
Divide and into far eastern Colorado and adjacent counties west of
Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range,
continuing east overnight with 40%-50% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the upper 80s
to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s.

Saturday-Saturday night...a similar pattern to Friday with a 20%
chance of thunderstorms in the late afternoon reaching the Flagler
area, continuing east-southeast with 20%-50% chances overnight. PWAT
values are quite a bit lower in the 0.9-1.3 inch range with general
storm motions around 15 to 20 mph. High temperatures look to be in
the lower to upper 80s with low temperatures in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Upper ridge will be centered over Texas to start the period but
gradually moves eastward and by the end of the period will be
centered over Georgia. Favored track of shortwaves rotating
around its periphery will also gradually shift eastward. That
track will be over eastern Colorado Sunday, the central part of
the forecast area Monday, the eastern part on Tuesday and then
moving east of the area by Wednesday. There will also be
shortwaves in the zonal flow coming out of Colorado as the ridge
retreats. So, either way we will have daily shower and
thunderstorm chances associated with both features. Location and
strength of best severe parameters vary from day to day, but
suffice to say there will likely be at a minimum a marginal risk
each day. Repeated rounds of storms may also present a risk of
flooding at some point. Temperatures will start out near normal
on Sunday in a post frontal regime, but triple digits return for
Monday with the ridge at its strongest, followed by a gradual
decrease in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge
retreats, albeit still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through
11Z. Tonight, east-southeast winds will remain generally light
with an occasional gust to 20+ kts through 12Z should storms
make it to the terminal. There is a possibility of stratus
toward 12Z to about mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible at the terminal as they move through from the west in
the 07-12Z timeframe. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south
and increase with gusts up to 30 kts. Morning potential sub VFR
ceilings slowly improve through the morning to VFR category.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected from TAF issuance through
about 11Z or so. Tonight, east to east-southeast winds up to 11
kts are forecast. Showers and thunderstorms are currently
forecast to reach the terminal from the west in the 11-18Z
timeframe; however, confidence is low for impacts to the
terminal. Sub VFR ceilings are possible as stratus moves in
behind the storms. Thursday morning, winds veer to the south
and increase with gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KMK