Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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758 FXUS63 KGLD 140452 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1052 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is possible over much of the area on Friday. Storms will develop in Colorado during the afternoon and move eastward through the remainder of the area Friday evening into Friday night. Some of these storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are also possible. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Across the Tri State region this afternoon, skies are sunny for most except for clouds developing along a front near the I-70 corridor from Highway 27 and points west. Temperatures as of 100 PM MDT are ranging from the mid 90s into the lower and mid 100s. Winds are northeasterly gusting to 20-25 mph at times. The main wx concerns in the short term period will be the threat for strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours today and again on Friday. For the remainder of the afternoon into tonight, the focus for convective initiation will be along the frontal boundary which currently sits along/south of I-70. Some cumulus is popping up and will be monitored through the afternoon. Parameters suggesting even some landspouts are also possible initially as storms move along the front. The latest CAMs are showing convection beginning in earnest around sunset and continuing into the evening hrs. With a very dry airmass, soundings are showing strong DCape values around 00z Friday in the 2200-2400 j/kg range and SBCape/MUCape in the 1800-1900j/kg range. Looking for main threats as large hail and damaging winds. SPC has upgraded the CWA to a Slight Risk for severe, with wind/hail threats. Can`t rule out an isolated tornado as well. The NamNest, HRRR and RAP all show most of the activity moving east this evening, with the bulk south of I-70 and the front. Some lingering rw/trw is possible through 12z Friday, but pops will be in the 30-40% range tapering to 15-20% overnight. Going into Friday/Friday night, the region again blanketed under a Slight Risk for storms, for the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance is showing the upper ridge currently over the southern Rockies to shift east into the southern Plains. This will allow for a couple shortwaves to work into the CWA along the northern periphery of the upper ridge. The one set to interact with a strong surface trough during the evening hours, will create the best chances for severe storms. Wind and hail are main threats, along with an isolated tornado, especially north of I-70. Soundings suggest large hail of at least 1-2 inches are possible, with some 2+. PW values of 1-2 inches will also result in the threat for locally heavy rainfall creating flash flooding concerns. Convection shifts/clears west to east overnight as both the surface/upper features clear the CWA towards 12z Saturday. Best chances after 06z will be east of Highway 25, but the bulk of highest pops 70-80% will be during the evening hours. For temps, the region will see daytime highs on Friday range in the mid to upper 80s. This will be offset by lows tonight ranging in the lower to mid 60s, and lows Friday night ranging from the lower 60s west into the mid and upper 60s east of Highway 25. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Saturday we will see the leftovers over the upper-level low move through and out of the area. This could sparks up some showers and lower end storms. The greatest potential hazard would be if this precipitation moved over areas that had been rained on the previous couple of day, creating a flooding risk. Sunday, the low will clear the area and we will be under weak southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us about a 15-20% daily chance of precipitation due to shortwaves in the evenings, but nothing highly organized is expected until the weak flow is disrupted, likely Tuesday afternoon. Around this time, the pressure gradient tightens up as the low over the NW CONUS pushes farther inland. This would work to amplify any disturbances and increase chances for PoPs. By mid-next week, we could see the low moving into the Great Plains and sending a cold front through the region. This would spark up some storms and start cooling temperatures down some. High temperatures until mid-next week look to be in the low 90s to low 100s. After the cold front moves through, after Tuesday, we will likely only warm into the 80s and low 90s. Overnight temperatures will follow a similar pattern and drop into the 60s to low 70s each night, save for Sunday night. Sunday night, additional cloud cover and fairly strong winds from the south are expected to keep temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Gusts overnight could get up to 30 kts. Behind the cold front, lows will cool down into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1050 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 GLD: Aside from a potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning.. and a potential for thunderstorms Friday evening (00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail. NE winds at 10-17 knots this evening will veer to the E (overnight) and SE (Friday). MCK: Aside from a potential for thunderstorms Friday evening (00-06Z Sat).. VFR conditions will prevail. NE winds at 10-17 knots this evening will veer to the E (overnight) and SE (Friday). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Vincent