Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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058 FXUS63 KGLD 130701 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 101 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures persist across portions of the area on Thursday, mainly south of I-70 where highs will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Scattered storms may develop in northeast CO and areas situated along/south of I-70 in KS Thursday afternoon. An isolated severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 65 mph is possible, if storms develop. - Thunderstorms anticipated to develop in CO Fri afternoon will track eastward into KS-NE late Fri aft/eve. Severe storms capable of producing large hail/damaging winds are possible, in addition to locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, especially Friday eve/night. - Return of triple digit heat expected on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Across the region this afternoon, sunny and hot conditions persist area-wide. Temperatures are currently ranging in the 90s as of 100 PM MDT. there is a surface trough currently traversing the area, providing a southerly fetch for areas east of Highway 25, and a west- northwest flow behind it. Gusts around 30 mph are occurring on either side of the boundary. Weather concerns in the short term will focus on some isolated rw/trw potential this evening and again later tonight. This will be followed by a chance for severe storms Thursday afternoon/evening. First off, a surface trough has been slowly traversing the CWA through the day and is currently pushing through the Highway 25 area, based on current wind regime. East of there, especially for locales east of Highway 83, there still remains some decent dewpts in the lower to mid 60s. While currently stable, DCape values on soundings does show some instability, so have followed the NamNest and continued a 15 pop for isolated coverage in the southeast(Gove. Sheridan/Graham counties mainly). Any storms could produce some strong gusts with inverted-v profiles. With a strong ridge aloft over the south-central Rockies providing westerly downslope flow to aid in this warmup, guidance puts a weak shortwave over the north/east portion of the ridge towards the 06z- 09z Thursday timeframe up into portion of northeast Colorado. With weak instability/moisture available, continued isolated wording for a 15 pop for a rw/trw. Winds would be main threat concern. Going into thursday, the aforementioned upper ridge begins a slow trek eastward into the southern Plains for afternoon/evening hours. This will allow a stronger shortwave to work off the central Rockies during the afternoon hours, and interact with a surface low over southeast Colorado, with a front extending eastward into Kansas. CAMs are showing rw/trw potential to develop from west to east over the CWA. Strong to severe storms are expected. Current guidance has DCape values around 1800-2000 j/kg by 21z. MUCape/SBCape values are around 1700-1900 j/kg. As a result, SPC now has much of the tri- state region under a Marginal Risk for severe storm, with hail and wind main threats. The activity does diminish from west to east overnight. For temps, looking for lows tonight to drop into a range from the lower to mid 60s west of Highway 25, into the mid and upper 60s east of Highway 25. A few locales east of Highway 83 may only drop into the 70F range. Going into Thursday, another hot day(850 mb temps +28c to +33c before front gets established) on tap with daytime highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s. Hottest areas along/south of I- 70. This will give way to overnight lows Thursday night in a range from the lower 60s west into the upper 60s east. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 101 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 At the start of the long term period, flow aloft backs from west- northwesterly to become west-southwesterly as an upper low centered over Saskatchewan progresses eastward. Mostly sunny skies and near- triple digit heat on Sunday will give way to a few chances for showers/storms Sunday evening as a shortwave moves through the area. We`ll then be looking at another low pressure system entering the Pacific Northwest at the start of the new work week, and out ahead of it, increasing southerly to southwesterly flow into the area, giving us breezy to windy conditions. Chances for showers/storms continue Monday evening followed by additional chances arriving with the mid-week system as a front moves in. Some slight relief from the heat will also be provided mid-week, albeit still above normal for this time of year, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows start out generally in the 60s to low 70s, falling into the mid-upper 50s and 60s mid-week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 955 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 GLD: VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds -- associated with a weak surface low over the region -- will predominate through Thursday morning, shifting to the NE-ENE at 12-17 knots mid- late Thursday afternoon (21-00Z). While isolated to scattered diurnal convection cannot be ruled out ~21-00Z.. confidence in convective development is low enough to preclude explicit mention with the 06Z TAF issuance. MCK: VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the NW-N at 12-17 knots shortly after sunrise.. gradually veering to the NNE and NE during the day on Thursday. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...BV