864
FXUS63 KGLD 221916
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weekend looks to remain hot with highs in the 90s to low 100s.
  Could be a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

- Next week, the high temperatures in the 90`s and 100`s are
  forecast to continue along with the potential high heat
  indices.

- Chances for storms each day next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Across the region this morning, skies are mostly cloudy to cloudy as
a surface low continues a slow trudge northeastward out of the area.
There is a trailing cold front behind this system. Temperatures as
of 100 AM MDT are mainly in the 70s east of the low, with 60s behind
it associated with the front. Similar setup with winds as a
southwesterly flow is occurring ahead of the low/front, with
northwest flow on the backside/with the front. Gusts in both regimes
are up to 20-30 mph at times, mainly away from the low circulation.

Weather concerns for this weekend into next Monday will continue to
focus on the hot, above normal temperatures each day. Also there is
a chance for convection Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening.

Looking aloft, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis and mid level water
vapor imagery are showing a broad expanding ridge over the southern
portions of the country. It will be this feature that will be the
most impactful weather-wise over the CWA during the short term
period. Its current position will bring zonal flow aloft today, but
going into Sunday and Monday, the latest GFS/NAM continue to show
amplification of this ridge into the Rockies, which is going to
result in a shift to W/NW flow aloft each day. Guidance does show a
couple weak shortwaves that pass along the eastern side of this
ridge Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, the region is still seeing extensive cloud cover
from a slow moving surface low as it lifts into south central
Nebraska. A cold front behind this low continues a S/SE push into
the area, bringing a shift to a N/NW flow, replacing the southerly
fetch the area has seen over the past 24 hrs. High pressure will
settle in behind this front during the day, with a slow trek E/SE
into the Plains. Downslope warming aloft, with 850mb temps +24c to
+29c will provide another hot but dry day for the area once the
cloud cover clears the area later today. Northerly winds today will
eventually shift northeasterly tonight and eventually southerly by
Sunday morning as the aforementioned ridge moves east of the area.

Going into Sunday, downslope warming aloft continues through the 24
hour period. With the surface high setting up east and models
bringing a lee-side trough into the Front Range, southerly flow will
usher in a hotter day compared to today area-wide. With
amplification of the upper ridge into the Rockies, there will be a
weak shortwave riding along the eastern side of the ridge. This
system will interact with the surface trough during the afternoon,
triggering a 15-30% chance for convection. The latest NamNest is
showing this convection cropping up around 21z, clearing east by 03z
Monday. With the near surface being so dry and hot(850mb temps +27c
to +32c), storms to be elevated with wind threats should any form
up. PW values around an inch west to 1.50" east could allow for a
locally heavy downpour as well. This activity again clears by mid
evening from west to east.

And for Monday, conditions are a similar setup to Sunday. Southerly
surface flow with downslope warming aloft will give the CWA another
hot day(850mb temps +31c to +35c). A late afternoon/early evening
shortwave passage interacting with a low/front sinking through the
region will trigger some rw/trw potential. This potential
precipitation will be a welcome reprieve to the hot conditions from
the daytime hours. See temperature section below for info concerning
potential Heat Advisory.

For temps, highs for the area this weekend will have a range in the
lower to mid 90s for Saturday, increasing on Sunday from the mid 90s
to the lower 100s. Going into next Monday, the region will be hotter
with a range from the upper 90s into the mid 100s.

With Sunday and Monday expecting to have almost the entire CWA
having at least 100F for daytime highs, there is the possibility for
some locales to come within a few degrees of tying a record. Please
refer to the Climate section below for further information.

Along with the hot, above normal temperatures, humidity will be
present to bring about high heat indices for areas east of Highway
25, especially Monday. Readings could approach 100 to 105. This
could result in the issuance of a Heat Advisory for portions of the
area. Stay tuned.

Lows for tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s. For Sunday
night, mid 60s to lower 70s expected. Going into Monday night, a
range from the mid 60s west into the lower 70s east is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the long term period, relatively hot conditions are forecast to
continue with increased chances for storms going into the end of the
work week and the weekend.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, hot temperatures in the mid 90`s to mid
100`s remain forecast with an upper level ridge axis forecast to
move through the area. While the current forecast has Wednesday a
bit cooler than Tuesday, this may change as ensemble guidance
suggests that the ridge may amplify a bit more which would help pull
in warmer temperatures into the area. An upper trough may slide
through the Northern Plains and help keep low pressure near the area
which would help provide some lift for storms and potentially swing
winds to out of the southeast. Storm chances either day are
currently forecast to be fairly limited and would likely form over
the higher terrain in Colorado and push east, especially with enough
moisture return.

For Thursday through Saturday, an upper trough over the Northwestern
CONUS is forecast to begin making its way across the Northern
Rockies and Plains. This is forecast to deamplify the ridging over
the area to more zonal flow, with southwesterly flow possible if the
trough amplifies enough. This is forecast to cool the area slightly
into the 90`s and low 100`s depending on how quickly the next trough
moves near. If it delays more towards the beginning of the weekend,
Thursday would likely be in the 100`s with lesser chances for
storms. Skies would generally be clear except for any PM storms and
lingering cloud cover the next morning.

For storms through the time period, severe weather would be
possible, but chances are currently forecast to be low each day. The
overall weak flow should keep effective shear below 30 kts and CAPE
is generally forecast to be below 2000 J/KG. Would likely be more
pulse severe storms except for the end of the week whenever the
surface low pressure and cold front move through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds
will become northeasterly this afternoon and evening, and weaken.
By sunrise, winds will be southerly and be picking back up
speed. Some models are suggesting light fog near KMCK around
12Z, but confidence is less than 5% flight conditions will be
impacted.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

With hot conditions expected over the area Sunday and especially
into Monday, with highs at least 100F area-wide, there could be some
locales coming within a few degrees of at least tying the daily
record(s). The records for Sunday, June 23rd and Monday, June 24th
listed below are for comparison to the expected forecast each day.
Despite the region seeing triple digit heat, most locales are still
below records.



                      Sunday, 6/23           Monday, 6/24


Goodland KS           106F in 2012+          109F in 2012

Burlington CO         106F in 1954           107F in 1954

Hill City KS          111F in 2012           114F in 2012

McCook NE             106F in 2012+          107F in 1943

Colby KS              105F in 1943           107F in 2012

Tribune KS            105F in 1954           109F in 2012

Yuma CO               107F in 1954           103F in 2002

A (+) denotes a multiple year record

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...JN